US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has linked a recent decline in participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, to fraud reduction and a stronger economy. However, experts say the data points more strongly to policy changes as the main driver of the drop.
Rollins said in April that millions had been removed from the program due to misuse and improving economic conditions.
“As of just a couple of days ago, we now have moved 4.3 million Americans off of the food stamp program. A lot of that is fraud. A lot of it is people taking the program that shouldn’t have been. And a lot of it is just a better economy. We’ve had wage growth that has outpaced inflation for the first time since early 2021. This is a really big day. So people don’t need food stamps,” she said.
But preliminary data from the US Department of Agriculture shows SNAP enrollment fell by about 4.3 million people between January 2025 and January 2026. Researchers argue the decline is largely linked to new eligibility and work requirements introduced under a major tax and spending law passed last summer.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the legislation will reduce federal SNAP spending by about $186 billion over 10 years, representing roughly a 20% cut.
Experts say these changes have made the program harder to access rather than indicating improved economic conditions or widespread fraud removal.
“What we’ve seen in terms of the data is that the trend in participation declines seems to be related to the program being harder to access,” said Roger Figueroa, an assistant professor at Cornell University.
They also pushed back on claims that fraud is responsible for the drop, noting that improper use of SNAP is relatively rare.
“I don’t see any evidence supporting a significant reduction in fraud as a driver of what we’re seeing as far as declining SNAP participation,” said Caitlin Caspi, an associate professor at the University of Connecticut.
Available federal data shows that in fiscal year 2023, about 41,476 people were disqualified for fraud out of more than 42 million participants—less than 1%.
The USDA, when asked for evidence supporting Rollins’ fraud claims, referred to external reports discussing eligibility rules such as broad-based categorical eligibility, a policy critics say allows states flexibility in determining access to benefits.
The broader US economy has remained relatively strong, with growth recovering in 2025 after a slow start. However, analysts note that food prices rose 3.1% in 2025 and continue to climb, limiting the impact of economic gains for low-income households.
“We have a persistent poverty problem in this country,” said Kate Bauer, an associate professor at the University of Michigan. “And we have huge economic disparities. And most people, even in good economic times, are not able to pull their families out of poverty.”
Wage growth of about 3.4% recently outpaced inflation at 3.3%, but economists say higher-income households have benefited more than lower-income families.
“We’re not seeing a linear kind of drop-off,” Caspi added. “We are not seeing… things that might be an indicator that a strong economy was driving this change.”
The 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” introduced stricter work requirements and expanded eligibility restrictions, including raising the age threshold for exemptions and tightening rules for certain groups such as homeless individuals, veterans, and former foster youth.
Experts say these changes have significantly reduced participation by making access more difficult.
By early 2026, SNAP enrollment had fallen to about 38.55 million from 42.83 million a year earlier, with most of the decline occurring after the new law was implemented.
“It shouldn’t be surprising that we are seeing this decline, and it shouldn’t be a leap in logic to think that these declines are attributable to H.R. 1,” Caspi said.
