Crude oil production among members of OPEC has collapsed to a generational low, reaching just 16.13 million barrels per day — the lowest level since 2000, according to a Reuters survey.
The May average is even lower than OPEC production at the height of the COVID lockdowns, when the reduction was prompted by a collapse in demand. But this time, the cause is not a pandemic. It is war.
Iran suffered the greatest loss of production, with exports falling to their lowest level in six years as a result of the US naval blockade. The blockade is a direct response to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has in turn affected other Gulf states’ production.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, saw production from its southern fields plunge by 70% since the start of the US and Israeli war on Iran. Average production now stands at just 1.3 million barrels per day, compared with 4.3 million bpd before the war began.
The War’s Uneven Impact
Not every OPEC member is suffering. Venezuela and Nigeria have seen their production increase, thanks to their distance from the hostilities in the Middle East.
Venezuela exported an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day in May, up 0.7% from April and a massive 61% jump compared to May 2025. Nigeria saw its oil and condensate production hit 1.66 million barrels per day in May, with crude alone rising to 1.49 million barrels daily — just shy of its OPEC+ production quota.
The divergence shows a stark reality: the war in the Gulf is reshaping global oil supply, benefiting producers outside the conflict zone while crippling those inside it.
The OPEC+ Factor
OPEC+ earlier this month upped its collective production quota by 188,000 barrels daily for July, bringing total quota additions since April to 600,000 barrels daily. But these are paper increases. Actual production remains constrained by the war.
The exclusion of the UAE, which left OPEC as of May 1, also affects the overall figures. But the core story remains: the two largest producers in the Gulf are unable to pump anywhere near their capacity.
The Bottom Line
OPEC oil production has fallen to its lowest level since 2000, at just 16.13 million barrels per day, according to a Reuters survey. Iran and Iraq have suffered the steepest declines due to the US naval blockade and the ongoing war. Iran’s exports are at a six-year low, while Iraq’s southern fields are producing 70% less than before the war. Venezuela and Nigeria have increased production due to their distance from the conflict. OPEC+ has raised production quotas on paper, but actual output remains constrained by the fighting.
