The deadline for candidate declarations in the French parliamentary elections ended on Tuesday, with numerous left and centrist candidates stepping aside to block the far-right National Rally (RN). Parties had until 18:00 local time (17:00 GMT) to register contenders for Sunday’s second round. French media reported that between 214 and 218 third-placed candidates withdrew from the race, reducing the number of three-way races to around 108 from over 300. The rest will be two-way run-offs, with two constituencies having four candidates qualify.
First-Round Results and Strategic Withdrawals
The first round of French elections last Sunday saw a significant victory for Marine Le Pen’s party, which, along with its allies, secured around 33% of the vote. A broad left-wing alliance came second, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists third.
However, Le Pen’s chances of an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly have been undermined by her opponents’ blocking tactics. The left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) instructed all third-placed candidates to step down, enabling a centrist to consolidate the anti-RN vote.
Tactical Alliances and Criticisms
The NPF is supporting senior pro-Macron MPs like former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin in their constituencies. Conversely, a pro-Macron candidate has withdrawn to support radical leftwinger François Ruffin against the RN candidate in Amiens. Jordan Bardella, RN’s 28-year-old president and prime minister hopeful, condemned these arrangements as an “alliance of dishonor.”
Ambiguous Instructions from Macron’s Camp
Instructions from Macron’s centrist bloc have been less clear than those from the NPF. While Macron and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal have called for “no vote for the RN,” some in his camp find the NPF’s far-left component equally unpalatable. Senior figures like Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe are reluctant to issue systematic anti-RN voting instructions.
RN’s Position and Le Pen’s Strategy
RN leaders have stated they will not form a government without an outright majority. However, Marine Le Pen hinted that a lower majority close to the 289-member threshold could suffice, allowing her party to negotiate with individual MPs from other groups. She mentioned potential alliances with independents and members of the conservative Republican party, which secured 10% of the vote.
Potential Outcomes and Accusations Against Macron
If the RN wins an absolute majority, Bardella would be tasked by President Macron to form a government, leading to a tense cohabitation period between political adversaries. Under the French Fifth Republic constitution, executive power would shift to the prime minister’s office. However, Macron would likely seek to retain control over foreign policy and defense.
Le Pen also accused Macron of preparing an “administrative coup d’état” by making key appointments in the police and army ahead of the vote. She criticized these actions as an attempt to counter the election results and hinder the new government’s policies, though she expressed hope that these were just rumors.
Bottom Line
The French parliamentary elections are poised for a dramatic second round, with strategic withdrawals and alliances shaping the outcome. The blocking tactics against the RN highlight the political maneuvers at play as parties strive to influence the final composition of the National Assembly. The results will determine not only the balance of power but also the potential for cohabitation between President Macron and a far-right government.
