The UK government is contemplating enforcing stricter visa applications for individuals from nationalities perceived to have a higher likelihood of overstaying their visas and seeking asylum in the UK.
Under the proposed Home Office plans, individuals from countries including Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka may face increased difficulties in obtaining UK work visas and UK study visas.
Ministers believe a significant issue lies with individuals entering the UK legally on these visas and subsequently lodging asylum claims, which, if successful, grant them permanent residency. The government aims to curb what it perceives as abuse of the asylum system.
The specific nationalities most prone to visa overstay remain unclear due to the Home Office’s lack of published exit checks data since 2020. This absence of reliable statistics complicates the assessment of the potential impact of visa restrictions.
Professor Jonathan Portes, a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe, suggests that restricting visas is “likely to be quite small” in terms of overall numbers. He believes the primary goal is to reduce asylum claims deemed “abusive,” particularly instances where individuals quickly transition from student visas to the asylum route.
Rising Asylum Claims and International Student Numbers in the UK
Latest Home Office figures reveal over 108,000 asylum seekers in the UK last year, marking the highest level since 1979. Pakistani nationals lodged the most claims (10,542), followed by Sri Lankan (2,862) and Nigerian (2,841) nationals.
In the 2023/24 period, the UK hosted 732,285 international students, predominantly from India and China. Notably, the number of UK work and study visas issued in 2024 saw a decrease compared to the previous year.
Political Pressure and Alternative Immigration Plans
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to reduce both legal and illegal migration but has refrained from setting a net migration target. Labour’s proposed measures include criminalizing actions endangering lives at sea to deter small boat crossings and addressing reliance on overseas workers through domestic training initiatives. Sir Keir has criticized the previous government’s failure to lower net migration.
Net migration figures reached a record high of 906,000 in the year to June 2023, subsequently falling to 728,000 by June 2024. Rules implemented by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, such as increasing the minimum salary for skilled overseas workers and restricting family dependants for care workers, appear to have contributed to this decrease.
Recent successes of Reform UK in local elections have potentially increased pressure on Labour to enact immigration system reforms. Reform UK’s manifesto proposes a freeze on non-essential immigration, with exceptions for skilled workers in sectors like healthcare.
Enver Solomon, Chief Executive of the Refugee Council, expressed concern that individuals on work or study visas may face genuine risks in their home countries due to changing political situations and emphasized their right to a fair hearing in the asylum system. Plans to address visa overstay were reportedly underway before the recent local elections, indicating a pre-existing focus on this issue within the government’s immigration policy.
