Oil prices slightly dropped on Friday as the market turned its focus to this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Many traders expect member nations to approve another production increase, adding more pressure to the already uncertain oil market.
Brent crude fell by 50 cents, settling at $68.30 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate also dropped by 50 cents, closing at $66.50. Trading remained thin because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
OPEC+ Meeting Keeps Traders On Edge
OPEC+ countries are expected to approve another oil output hike for August. The meeting, originally set for Sunday, was moved to Saturday.
Reports indicate that eight OPEC+ nations may raise production by 411,000 barrels per day for the fourth straight month.
Energy analyst Tamas Varga explained, “If the group decides to increase its output by another 411,000 barrels per day in August, oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will change and show faster growth in global oil reserves.”
Market watchers are also reacting to signs of profit-taking. Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn noted, “There seems to be some profit-taking on concerns that OPEC will raise production by more than expected.”
Flynn added that traders are waiting for OPEC’s decision while also monitoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax and spending cuts, which were expected to be signed into law on Friday.
Geopolitics and Trade Tensions Add Pressure
Oil prices also felt pressure from news of possible U.S. nuclear talks with Iran. A report from Axios revealed that Washington plans to resume talks with Tehran next week. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that Iran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs is resurfacing. The deadline for a 90-day pause on higher tariffs is fast approaching. Talks between the European Union and the Trump administration have stalled, raising concerns of looming trade disputes.
Six EU diplomats said on Friday that the bloc may seek to extend current trade terms to avoid sudden tariff hikes.
Barclays Raises Oil Price Forecast Despite Volatility
Despite the current market pressure, Barclays raised its Brent crude forecast for 2025 and 2026. The bank now expects Brent to average $72 per barrel in 2025, up by $6, and $70 in 2026, up by $10, citing improved demand expectations.
The oil market remains caught between OPEC+ output decisions, global trade tensions, and Middle East politics. However, traders are closely watching the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, as it may shape the market’s next big move.
With prices dropping ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, oil traders brace for what could be a decisive moment for global energy markets.
