US President Donald Trump’s net approval rating among Black and Hispanic voters has risen across three consecutive Economist/YouGov polls conducted between September 18 and October 5, showing a 19-point improvement among Black respondents and a 20-point increase among Hispanic respondents.
The findings have raised questions about whether some of the voter groups that contributed to Trump’s 2024 election victory are becoming more receptive to his presidency ahead of the midterm elections.
Republican and Democratic campaigns in Georgia, Texas, and Florida are expected to monitor whether the national trend is reflected in their diverse electorates. However, national polling figures alone cannot confirm that similar changes are taking place in individual states.
“There is clearly something going on here in terms of the structural shifting of coalitions from 2024,” Peter Finn, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Greenwich who specialises in US elections, told Newsweek via email.
Finn, however, cautioned that the movement should be considered within a broader political climate that may still present challenges for Trump.
Richard Johnson, a senior lecturer in US politics and policy at Queen Mary University of London, suggested that Republican media outreach and grassroots campaigns targeting some Black and Hispanic voters might be contributing to the change.
He also proposed that the figures could reflect a “gentle recovery” among relatively conservative voters whose political choices are influenced by “negative partisanship” when they view Democratic candidates as the alternative.
“It can be difficult to distill general conclusions from the noise of polls,” Johnson cautioned.
The White House, meanwhile, attributed the findings to the strength of Trump’s political coalition and his administration’s communication with supporters.
“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek.
Ingle pointed to the administration’s record on taxes, prescription-drug costs, immigration, crime, energy and private-sector employment. He also said Trump was determined to retain Republican control of Congress.
Describing the president as the party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator,” Ingle framed the midterm elections as a contest between Trump’s agenda and Democratic policies.
Polls Show Declining Disapproval Among Black, Hispanic Respondents
Trump’s return to the White House was supported by gains among Hispanic voters and some sections of the Black electorate, challenging assumptions about Democrats’ longstanding demographic advantages.
Subsequent signs of declining support had raised questions about the durability of those gains. However, the latest three polls suggest that opposition to Trump may have eased among the two groups.
The first survey, conducted from September 18 to 21 among 1,401 registered US voters, recorded Trump’s net approval rating at -15 among White respondents, -84 among Black respondents and -37 among Hispanic respondents.
The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points after weighting.
In the second survey, conducted from September 25 to 28 with 1,429 registered voters, the corresponding net approval figures stood at -16 for White respondents, -71 for Black respondents and -26 for Hispanic respondents. Its stated margin of error was also plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The third poll, which surveyed 1,381 registered voters between October 2 and 5, placed Trump’s net approval at -15 among White respondents, -65 among Black respondents and -17 among Hispanic respondents. It carried the same stated margin of error.
Across the three surveys, Trump’s net approval improved by 19 points among Black respondents and 20 points among Hispanic respondents.
Among Black respondents, approval of the president rose from six per cent to 15 per cent, while disapproval declined from 90 per cent to 80 per cent.
For Hispanic respondents, approval increased from 31 per cent to 41 per cent, while disapproval dropped from 68 per cent to 58 per cent.
Opinion among White respondents remained largely unchanged. Approval moved from 41 per cent to 42 per cent, while disapproval increased slightly from 56 per cent to 57 per cent.
Despite the improvements among Black and Hispanic respondents, Trump remained underwater in both groups in the final survey. His net approval stood at -65 among Black respondents and -17 among Hispanic respondents.
The figures therefore indicate a reduction in opposition rather than a shift to majority approval.
That distinction is important because voters becoming less dissatisfied with a president does not necessarily mean they will support the president’s party in congressional elections. Candidate appeal, turnout and opinions about local nominees can influence voting decisions when Trump himself is not on the ballot.
Reasons For The Movement Remain Unclear
Although the surveys show a consistent direction of change, they do not establish what caused it.
One possibility is that some voters who supported Trump in 2024 after previously backing Democrats are reassessing their views following a period of dissatisfaction.
Another explanation is that the weekly surveys captured different combinations of respondents within broad racial and ethnic categories.
Hispanic voters, for instance, come from communities with varying national origins, ages, economic backgrounds, and regional identities. Political opinions among Black voters can also differ according to generation, gender, education, and geography.
Consequently, a change within one segment may influence the national figures without representing an equivalent shift across the entire group.
Sampling uncertainty is another factor that requires caution. The stated margin of error of 3.4 percentage points applies to each survey’s full registered-voter sample, not necessarily to its smaller racial and ethnic subgroups.
Because fewer people are represented in those subgroups, their estimates are less precise and more vulnerable to statistical variation.
The fact that three consecutive surveys recorded movement in the same direction makes the pattern noteworthy, but it does not prove that the electorate has shifted by the full amount indicated.
Midterm Elections Will Provide Another Test
The political significance of the findings will depend on where the changes are occurring and whether they influence voting behaviour in congressional contests.
Georgia’s sizeable Black electorate means that even modest shifts could attract attention in a competitive election. Texas and Florida present different circumstances, as their Hispanic populations are politically and culturally diverse. A national figure may therefore conceal different patterns within individual states.
Turnout will also matter. Midterm electorates differ from those in presidential elections, and enthusiasm, voter registration and candidate quality can affect results independently of presidential approval ratings.
For Republicans, the figures offer a possible indication that Trump retains some appeal among voters who moved towards him in 2024.
Democrats, however, can point to the fact that majorities of both Black and Hispanic respondents in the latest survey still disapproved of his performance.
Further polling, particularly state-level surveys that measure voting intentions alongside presidential approval, will be needed to determine whether the trend extends beyond the national figures.
For now, the three polls indicate a possible change in the direction of opinion, but they do not establish a lasting shift in Trump’s political coalition or determine how voters will behave in the midterm elections.
