Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party emerged victorious in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, according to exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay, and Elabe. The RN secured around 34% of the vote, outpacing leftist and centrist rivals.
President Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance garnered between 20.5% and 23%, while the New Popular Front, a newly formed left-wing coalition, received approximately 29% of the vote.
Uncertainty Ahead of Run-off
Despite the RN’s strong showing, the outcome will hinge on days of political negotiations leading up to next week’s run-off. Although the RN is projected to win the most seats in the National Assembly, only Elabe predicts the party will achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats in the July 7 run-off.
Voter Turnout and Political Dynamics
Voter participation was notably higher than in previous parliamentary elections, reflecting the political engagement spurred by Macron’s decision to call for a parliamentary vote following the RN’s success in the European Parliament elections earlier this month. By 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared to 39.42% two years ago, marking the highest comparable turnout since the 1986 legislative vote, according to Ipsos France’s research director Mathieu Gallard.
Political Bargaining and the Republican Front
A week of political bargaining lies ahead, with the final result dependent on how parties align in each of France’s 577 constituencies for the second round.
Historically, center-right and center-left parties have collaborated to prevent the RN from gaining power, a strategy known as the “republican front.” However, this dynamic is less certain now than ever before.
In a written statement, Macron urged voters to support candidates who are “clearly Republican and democratic,” effectively excluding those from the RN and the hard-left France Unbowed party.
RN’s Path to Power
Le Pen has made efforts to rebrand the RN, distancing it from its past associations with racism and antisemitism. This strategy appears to be resonating with voters frustrated by Macron, rising living costs, and immigration concerns. As the RN edges closer to power, France’s political landscape may be on the verge of significant change.
Bottom Line
The first round of France’s parliamentary elections has set the stage for a crucial run-off, with the RN leading but facing an uncertain path to forming a government. The outcome will depend on the intricate political maneuvering in the coming days, making next week’s elections pivotal for the future direction of French politics.
