Election forecasters have revised their assessments of the Ohio gubernatorial race, moving Democratic candidate Amy Acton ahead of Republican rival Vivek Ramaswamy following a backlash over a campaign advert targeting her personal history.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, two prominent election analysis organisations, changed their ratings of the contest from “tossup” to “lean Democrat” as Election Day approaches.
The revisions followed widespread criticism of an advert released by Ramaswamy’s campaign featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, attacking her daughter and urging voters not to support her.
Acton said she had not seen her mother since she was 12, when a court ordered her removal from her mother’s custody. At the time, Acton had alleged that her stepfather, Cledith Arthur, sexually abused her over several years during her childhood.
Her mother was subsequently reported to have remained married to Cledith until his death in 2004, while Acton spent her teenage years under the care of her biological father.
The advert, which circulated widely online on Monday, triggered criticism from politicians across party lines, including Ohio’s Republican Governor, Mike DeWine.
DeWine described the contents as “deeply, deeply troubling”, arguing that the circumstances surrounding Acton’s childhood made the campaign’s decision particularly disturbing.
“When you know the rest of the story, when you know the backstory, when you know that the husband of the mom was indicted by a grand jury after hearing testimony and that he took off along with the mother… and that two children never saw, I guess, the mother after that — when you know that, it just to me makes it more serious,” DeWine said.
“It makes it just more wrong,” he added.
The controversy intensified after Ramaswamy’s campaign confirmed that it was responsible for the advert and planned to broadcast it across Ohio, prompting further scrutiny of the Republican candidate’s campaign strategy.
By Thursday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball had downgraded Ramaswamy’s prospects, suggesting the advert could alienate independent voters and Republicans who might otherwise support him.
“The Ramaswamy-Acton race has already been very nasty — the New York Times suggested it may be ‘the Ugliest in the Country’ in a headline,” the organisation said while explaining its decision.
It added that the contest had taken a darker turn after the advert featuring Acton’s mother began circulating on social media.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also questioned whether the campaign’s decision could help Ramaswamy recover ground in the closing days of the race, describing the advert as a potentially risky attempt to change the campaign’s direction.
The organisation warned that producing such an inflammatory message could backfire and further damage the Republican candidate’s standing with voters.
The Cook Political Report followed with a similar adjustment on Friday, pointing to the advert as a significant development in a contest where Ramaswamy had already been struggling in opinion polls.
“The trajectory of Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds in the Ohio governor’s race has been clear to us for the last few weeks,” it said.
“But the campaign’s decision this week to air a deeply personal attack ad against opponent Amy Acton confirmed that the race is slipping away from him — and perhaps creating some collateral damage for fellow Republicans on the way.”
The organisation also raised concerns that the backlash could affect Republican Senator Jon Husted, who is facing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race.
Although recent polls have shown Brown with a narrow lead, both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball maintained their “tossup” ratings for the Senate contest.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted that pre-election polls in Ohio had often overstated Democratic performance compared with final election results over the past decade, making the outcome difficult to predict.
However, the forecasters suggested that President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the state could influence the electoral landscape and potentially benefit Democratic candidates.
The assessment marks a possible change from Ohio’s previous election cycles in 2018 and 2022, when Trump was a more popular political figure in the state.
With Election Day little more than a week away, the controversy surrounding Ramaswamy’s advert has become a central issue in the governor’s race, while analysts continue to monitor whether the fallout will affect other Republican contests in Ohio.
