South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) has cobbled together a new government involving five parties, covering over two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly. The ANC announced on Monday that it is still in talks with other parties to strengthen this coalition.
Why It Matters
The ANC, once dominant, was forced into this coalition after failing to secure a parliamentary majority for the first time since the historic 1994 elections that ended apartheid. Last month’s election results have thrown the political landscape into chaos, with the ANC scrambling to maintain control.
Cyril Ramaphosa, the beleaguered leader of the ANC, managed to cling to the presidency last Friday. His narrow victory was only possible through alliances with unlikely bedfellows: the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA), led predominantly by white South Africans, the socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and the right-wing Patriotic Alliance (PA). On Monday, the ANC added another feather to its coalition cap with the inclusion of the tiny party, GOOD, which has a single seat in the National Assembly.
“The president will exercise the prerogative to appoint the cabinet, in consultation with leaders of GNU (government of national unity) parties, adhering to existing protocols on government decision-making and budgeting,” the ANC said, adding it was still in discussions with more parties to join the government.
This patchwork coalition now commands 273 seats in the 400-seat parliament, or 68%. The ANC holds 159 seats, the DA 87, the IFP 17, the PA 9, and GOOD 1. The unity government promises to represent all participating parties, making decisions by consensus—a tall order in such a diverse group.
The unity government has grand plans: boosting rapid, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, attracting fixed capital investment, creating jobs, reforming land policies, and developing infrastructure. However, the real power lies with President Ramaphosa, who will appoint the cabinet in consultation with coalition leaders, sticking to established protocols on decision-making and budgeting.
What They Are Saying
Despite this apparent harmony, not all parties are on board. The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), with 39 seats, refuses to join any government involving the DA or the Freedom Front Plus, both of which are supported by the white minority. Similarly, the uMkhonto we Sizwe party, led by controversial former President Jacob Zuma, is steering clear of the unity government. With 58 seats, it plans to join a “Progressive Caucus” alongside the EFF and the centre-left United Democratic Movement, forming a formidable opposition.
“With populist parties choosing to reject the GNU, and the ANC’s bigger partners in the governing coalition centre-leaning and favouring more liberal economic policies, we think the GNU opens the possibility for more growth-friendly structural reforms and prudent macroeconomic policy choices,” HSBC economist David Faulkner said in a note.
“But the GNU could also face ideological divisions and exacerbate fractures within the ANC, factors that could make establishing a stable policy framework difficult
Economist David Faulkner from HSBC notes that the unity government could pave the way for growth-friendly reforms and prudent economic policies. However, he warns of potential ideological rifts and internal ANC conflicts, which could undermine policy stability.
Bottom Line
In short, South Africa’s political scene is in flux, with the ANC struggling to maintain its grip on power through an unwieldy coalition. Whether this unity government can deliver on its lofty promises remains to be seen.
