Democratic candidates Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton have opened six-point leads in Ohio’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, respectively, according to a new poll by Bowling Green State University (BGSU).
The survey found former Senator Brown leading incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted by 48 per cent to 42 per cent among likely voters. The result marks an increase from September, when Brown held a three-point advantage.
Despite Brown’s lead, Ohio voters remain divided over who they believe will eventually win the Senate race. The poll showed 48 per cent expecting Brown to prevail and an equal 48 per cent predicting victory for Husted. In the previous survey, more respondents had expected Husted to win.
In the governor’s contest, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 50 per cent to 44 per cent. Acton’s six-point advantage is also an improvement on the three-point lead she recorded in BGSU’s September poll.
However, Ramaswamy remains the candidate whom most respondents expect to win. Fifty-five per cent said they believed he would emerge victorious, compared with 43 per cent who expected Acton to win. The gap has narrowed since the university’s previous survey.
Ohio was traditionally regarded as a competitive state in national elections, but its political landscape has shifted towards Republicans over the past decade, beginning with President Donald Trump’s victory there in 2016.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris lost the state by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election, while Brown was defeated in his Senate re-election bid that year by a margin of 3.5 points.
The latest BGSU survey also found that Democratic voters were more motivated to participate in the upcoming election than their Republican counterparts. Fifty-nine per cent of Democrats expressed greater motivation to vote, compared with 41 per cent of Republicans, although the difference was smaller than in September.
BGSU political science professor Robert Alexander cautioned Democrats against interpreting the polling leads as a guarantee of victory.
“While this will be welcome news to Democrats, a blue wave in Ohio is far from a sure thing,” Alexander said. “Republicans have closed well in recent statewide elections, and I would be surprised if these races did not end up within the margin of error in either direction.”
The closeness of the Senate contest is also reflected in the assessment by nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill. The organisation gives Brown a 53 per cent chance of flipping the seat.
Meanwhile, the Senate race has been marked by a heavy volume of campaign advertising, with the poll indicating that many voters have grown weary of the constant political messaging.
Only six per cent of likely voters said they wanted to see more political advertisements before Election Day. Sixty per cent described the adverts as largely negative, with the tone of the campaigns prompting them to tune out the messages altogether.
Commenting on the findings, Alexander said voters remained interested in the election but were increasingly frustrated by the volume of advertising.
“Ohio voters remain deeply engaged in this election, but they are also telling us that the nonstop barrage of political advertising has become overwhelming,” he said.
The BGSU poll was conducted in partnership with YouGov through a web-based survey of 1,000 likely voters in Ohio between September 29 and October 9. The survey has a margin of error of 3.95 percentage points.
