Vladimir Putin may soon lose the ability to negotiate from a position of strength in the war against Ukraine as Russia faces mounting military, economic, and internal pressures, according to Estonia’s top intelligence official.
Speaking in an interview at the headquarters of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service in Tallinn, the agency’s director, Kaupo Rosin, said the Kremlin is increasingly aware that the war is not progressing as expected.
“In the next four or five months, Putin may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength anymore,” Rosin said.
He explained that Russia is struggling with heavy battlefield losses, economic strain, and growing concerns about domestic stability, insisting that “time is not in Russia’s favor.”
Rosin noted that discussions within the Kremlin have shifted away from ambitions of total victory.
“I do not hear any more talk about total victory. People (in the Kremlin) recognize that the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield is not going too well,” he said.
According to him, Russian forces are losing troops faster than they can recruit replacements. Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reportedly estimated that Russian troops advanced only an average of 70 meters daily over a two-year period while suffering significant casualties.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also recently claimed that Russia is “losing 15-20,000 soldiers a month dead. Not injured, dead.”
The war has increasingly become dominated by drone warfare, with both Russia and Ukraine heavily investing in unmanned technologies. Rosin said this shift has made large territorial breakthroughs difficult for either side.
Currently, both sides are “unable to conduct a massive, mechanized breakthrough” deep into enemy territory, he stated.
Rosin warned that if Moscow hopes to fully capture Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, it may need another major troop mobilization.
“If the Russians were able to mobilize another couple of hundred thousand more people to the battlefield, that would be a problem (for Ukraine),” he said.
However, he added that such a move could trigger internal unrest inside Russia.
“They (the Kremlin) are very concerned about internal stability, monitoring it very carefully… This is not the decision they would make very easily,” Rosin said.
Russia’s economy is also facing mounting pressure from sanctions, war expenses and Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure. Rosin claimed Ukraine’s drone operations had caused “billions and billions of dollars’ worth of damage to the energy sector.”
Last week, Russia reportedly reduced its economic growth forecast for the year from 1.3 percent to 0.4 percent.
Rosin further suggested that the war is increasingly being felt inside Russia itself.
“The war is coming, war is at home” for the Russian people, he said, referencing recent drone attacks on Moscow.
Despite the challenges, Rosin believes Putin is unlikely to abandon his objectives in Ukraine and may continue using both military and political strategies to influence Kyiv.
“If he doesn’t achieve the goal with military means, he certainly will try to achieve his goal via other means in order to have a pro-Russia government in Kyiv,” he said.
He also pointed to rising fears within Russia over instability and security concerns, including rumours of coup plots and increasing violence linked to soldiers returning from the war.
Still, Rosin said there was no immediate indication of a public uprising against the Kremlin.
“I really do not see a street revolution at this point, but sometimes such systems are very hollow inside, and if something happens, it will happen very rapidly, and we all will be surprised,” he added.
