The “Special Relationship” and the NATO alliance are facing an existential crisis as European leaders, led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, have officially rebuffed President Trump’s demands for military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz. In a series of unusually blunt statements, the continent’s most powerful figures have made it clear that they view the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran as a self-inflicted disaster that they have no intention of joining.
The Merz Manifesto: No Consultation, No Support
Chancellor Friedrich Merz, typically a staunch Transatlanticist, didn’t mince words when addressing the Bundestag on Wednesday. He argued that Washington has failed to provide any “convincing plan” for victory and crucially failed to consult its allies before launching the offensive on February 28. “Washington has not consulted us and did not say European assistance was necessary,” Merz noted, adding that Germany will not participate in any military effort to open the Strait as long as this specific war continues.
The sentiment was echoed by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who delivered the week’s most viral soundbite: “This is not our war, we have not started it.”
A Continent in Revolt: From Paris to Madrid
The defiance isn’t limited to Berlin. President Macron has asserted that France is “not party to the conflict,” while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has denounced the attacks as both “reckless and illegal.” Spain even brushed off Trump’s threats to cut trade ties, with Deputy Prime Minister María José Montero declaring, “We are certainly not going to be anybody’s vassals.”
- Public Opinion: Polls show a massive wave of anti-war sentiment across Europe, with 68% of Spaniards, 58% of Germans, and 49% of Britons opposing the strikes.
- The “Greenland” Factor: European diplomats are reportedly “rattled” by Trump’s erratic foreign policy, including his renewed designs on taking Greenland from Denmark, leading to a total breakdown in trust.
- Alternative Coalitions: France and Britain are already discussing a “Plan B” to secure the Strait of Hormuz—one that notably excludes a U.S. role and focuses on de-escalation with Tehran.
Trump’s “War President” Transformation
From my perspective, Trump is witnessing the total collapse of American soft power in real-time. By treating the world’s most important security alliance like a protection racket, he has forced his allies to choose between their values and their “vassalage.” Trump’s public mockery of Keir Starmer calling him “no Winston Churchill,” is a desperate attempt to bully a partner that is simply following the democratic will of its people.
The irony is that while Trump claims to be protecting the global economy, his allies see him as the primary threat to it. By loosening oil sanctions on Russia to cool his own domestic diesel prices while simultaneously setting the Middle East on fire, Trump has “blindsided” the very people he now expects to bleed for him in the Persian Gulf. As EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas put it, Europe is now putting “ice in our hats” to stay calm in the face of an American leadership that has become more unpredictable than the regime it is trying to topple
