Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia for a state visit, the Kremlin announced on Monday. The visit is significant as Mongolia lies on the route of a planned new gas pipeline that will connect Russia with China.
Since the onset of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has lost a substantial portion of its gas sales in Europe due to sanctions imposed by European countries. In response, Russia has been exploring alternative markets and has been in talks for years about building a pipeline to transport 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually from its Yamal region to China via Mongolia.
This project, known as Power of Siberia 2, is a key component of Russia’s strategy to offset the loss of its European gas market. It is intended to follow up on the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, which currently supplies Russian gas to China and is expected to reach its full capacity of 38 bcm per year by 2025.
While the new pipeline project has faced delays due to unresolved issues such as gas pricing, Putin stated on the eve of his visit that preparatory work, including feasibility and engineering studies, is progressing as planned. Putin is scheduled to hold talks with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh on Tuesday.
In a related development, Ukraine last week urged Mongolia to arrest Putin based on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) last year. The warrant accuses Putin of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. Despite the potential concerns this might raise about Putin’s safety, the Kremlin has dismissed the ICC accusation as politically motivated and has expressed no concerns about Putin’s trip. The ICC warrant requires the court’s 124 member states, including Mongolia, to arrest Putin and transfer him to The Hague for trial if he sets foot on their territory.
When asked whether there had been discussions with Mongolian authorities regarding the ICC warrant, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated last week that “all aspects of the visit have been thoroughly discussed.”
As a result, it is not expected that Mongolia will arrest Putin as Ukraine has requested. However, Putin’s visit to Mongolia raises two key points of concern. First, it highlights Russia’s efforts to strengthen relations with China, particularly in the context of sustaining its economy during the ongoing conflict, despite regional sanctions. Second, the prospect of Mongolia ignoring the ICC warrant, despite being a party to the court, raises serious questions about the adherence to international law and the effectiveness of global institutions in maintaining world stability. The ease with which international decisions can be disregarded brings into question the ability of international institutions to uphold order as geopolitical tensions rise.
