Russians voting at embassies and consulates abroad backed the liberal New People party over Vladimir Putin’s United Russia by a margin of eight to one, according to two independent exit polls conducted during this weekend’s State Duma elections.
The results are the reverse of official figures from inside Russia, where Putin’s party took nearly 58% of the vote.
The Exit Polls
The Vote Abroad project, which surveyed almost 15,700 voters at 27 polling stations across 22 countries, put New People at 43%, the Communist Party at 18.3%, and United Russia at 5.5%. In 10 countries, including Armenia, Germany, and Finland, United Russia failed to clear the 5% threshold required to win Duma seats.
A separate exit poll by opposition movement Vesna and the Progress project, covering 18 stations in 17 countries, put New People first at every location with 47.3%, the Communist Party second at 19.2%, and United Russia at just 2.8%.
Inside Russia, the Central Election Commission reported United Russia winning nearly 58%, the Communist Party at 14%, the LDPR at almost 9%, and New People below 8%.
The Contrast
“The contrast is indeed very stark,” Ivan Zhdanov, director of the Progress project, told Euronews. “83.5% of those who answered our question on trust do not fully or mostly trust the official results.”
“In purely arithmetic terms, votes cast abroad are hardly going to determine the composition of the Duma,” he said. “But they are important: they show a completely different reality and destroy the image of supposed support for the authorities.”
Many Russians who left the country after the 2022 invasion oppose the war. The only anti-war party, Yabloko, was barred from the election on a procedural pretext and excluded from the federal ballot entirely. Those abroad who opposed the war had no Yabloko option and predominantly voted New People instead.
The Voting Experience
Voting abroad was largely calm, exit poll workers said, in contrast to reports from inside Russia of ballot stuffing and obstruction of observers.
Russia’s ambassador to Switzerland branded exit poll participants “anti-Russian agitators” and “representatives of foreign organisations designated as undesirable in Russia.” In Bern, a Russian embassy guard approached one volunteer during the day, pointed at the passport of the person being interviewed, and jabbed a finger at her computer screen, apparently intended as a warning about consequences.
In Geneva, local authorities required volunteers to stand at least 150 metres from the consulate entrance.
Supporters of United Russia arrived at polling stations smartly dressed, volunteers observed, “in the best Soviet traditions,” one said. Some were hostile to the volunteers, demanding to know whether they held Russian passports and telling them to “get a proper job.”
The Restrictions
Russians abroad were given a more restricted ballot than in 2021. Under legislative changes introduced in 2024, they could vote only on the federal party list, not for single-mandate constituency candidates, a change human rights organisations criticised as violating voters’ equality.
A total of 1.8 million Russian citizens abroad were entitled to vote, with 326 polling stations operating at embassies and consulates across 152 countries, more than 60 fewer than at the 2021 elections.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the elections were “yet another serious blow to Russian democracy” and announced she had proposed sanctions against individuals who facilitated voting in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.
The Bottom Line
Exit polls show Russians abroad voted eight to one against Putin’s United Russia party, a stark contrast to official results inside Russia. New People won 43-47% abroad, while United Russia received just 2.8-5.5%. The anti-war party Yabloko was barred from the ballot, leaving voters to choose New People. The Kremlin dismissed exit poll participants as “anti-Russian agitators.” The EU called the elections “another serious blow to Russian democracy.”
My Opinion
The official results say United Russia won nearly 58% of the vote. The exit polls from Russians abroad say United Russia got between 2.8% and 5.5%. Both cannot be true. The Kremlin will dismiss the exit polls as the work of “anti-Russian agitators.” But the numbers tell a different story. Russians who left the country after the 2022 invasion voted overwhelmingly against Putin’s party. They did so even though the only anti-war party was barred from the ballot. They did so even though their votes were restricted to the federal party list. They did so knowing the Kremlin was watching.
The gap between what Russians abroad told pollsters and what the Central Election Commission reported is not a minor discrepancy. It is a chasm. It suggests that the official results inside Russia may not reflect what voters actually wanted. It suggests that the Kremlin’s image of overwhelming support is just that: an image. And it suggests that the Russians who left, who watch from abroad, who still care enough to vote, know the difference between an election and a performance.
