Democratic candidate James Talarico is narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the closely watched Texas Senate race, according to a new CBS News poll released as early voting begins ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
The poll puts Talarico at 51 per cent and Paxton at 49 per cent, leaving the two candidates separated by just two percentage points.
Political analyst Brandon Rottinghaus said the final days of the campaign could be important as both candidates work to persuade voters and mobilise their supporters.
“Momentum is critical in a race like this, so obviously, every day counts,” said Rottinghaus, a KHOU 11 political analyst.
Both campaigns have intensified their activities across Texas as Election Day approaches. Talarico began his “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” tour in Plano on Sunday night, while Paxton is continuing an 18-day bus tour across the state.
However, Rottinghaus said the months of campaigning and political advertising had already influenced many voters’ decisions.
“Most people have already decided who they are going for,” Rottinghaus said. “That in part is because of partisanship, and it’s in part because we had this campaign running ads pretty much nonstop for two months. People have already pretty much made up their minds on these issues.”
Turnout, particularly among Republican voters, could play an important role in determining the outcome of the closely contested race.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly four decades. Republican President Donald Trump has campaigned for Paxton and urged voters to view the Republican candidate as aligned with his political agenda.
Talarico has focused part of his campaign on independent voters as well as Republicans who are dissatisfied with Trump’s second term.
The CBS News poll found that Talarico has the backing of 5 per cent of voters who identify as Republicans. It also showed that 9 per cent of respondents who said they never vote for Democrats would support a Democratic candidate in this election.
Despite Talarico’s slim advantage in the poll, Rottinghaus said Paxton could still outperform expectations on Election Day.
“Scandals are definitely less important than they used to be, especially in a highly polarized environment,” Rottinghaus said. “Co-partisans tend to ignore these kinds of scandals, and many people feel like they aren’t really that important in the grand scheme of things.”
With the race attracting national attention, both candidates are expected to concentrate on mobilising their respective supporters in the final stretch.
The campaigns are also expected to make appearances in the Houston area before voters head to the polls on November 3.
