The stage is set for a big economic battle in the 2024 US presidential election, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris offering very different visions for America’s financial future. Trump’s plan, shared in a speech at Wall Street, promises lower taxes, less government spending, and fewer regulations, with support from Elon Musk. Harris, on the other hand, suggests raising taxes for the rich and big companies to fund a stronger social safety net, tax breaks for childcare, and benefits for small business owners.
Bitcoin’s outlook is surprisingly optimistic. Financial experts see promising signs for risky investments, including Bitcoin, regardless of the winner. Daan Crypto Trades, a trader, thinks that Bitcoin’s price could go up or down by at least 10% depending on who wins the U.S. presidential election on November 5. This isn’t just a guess, because Bitcoin’s price has been changing a lot lately, more than it has in the past three months. On November 3, the Bitcoin volatility index on Deribit reached a high point, making everyone nervous.
Donald Trump, who has been more supportive of cryptocurrencies during his campaign, is seen as a short-term good thing for crypto. He has said he will protect and encourage crypto innovation in the U.S. But, because he hasn’t always kept his promises in the past, people are unsure if he will really do what he says about crypto.
Tax Policies: Two Different Ideas
Trump wants to keep the tax cuts from 2017 and cut more, while Harris plans to raise the top corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Harris also aims to bring back income tax rates from before 2018 for people earning over $400,000. The difference is clear: Trump’s plan likely helps the wealthy, while Harris’s plan focuses on making the economy more equal.
Trade Conflicts: Trump’s Tariff Strategy
Trump suggests charging 10-20% on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese imports, which could restart trade conflicts. Many experts say this might harm the US economy. Harris disagrees with Japan’s Nippon Steel buying US Steel for $15 billion but takes a more balanced view on tariffs.
Effects on Economic Growth and Prices
Experts think Trump’s actions could slow down growth and raise prices in 2025. Harris’s ideas might slightly increase GDP growth. The result depends on which party runs Congress, as they decide most financial changes.
Addressing Wealth Disparities and Student Loans
Harris suggests moving wealth around to help with economic fairness and erasing student debt. Her initiative to set a $35 limit on insulin prices for everyone and speed up government talks with drug companies to reduce medicine costs has caught people’s attention.
Trump plans to fix the housing shortage by:
- Allowing more housing to be built on federal land
- Sending millions of immigrants back to their home countries to lower demand
Economic Effects
The Penn Wharton Budget Model says Trump’s plans would add $5.8 trillion to the primary deficit over 10 years. While the economy might grow at first, it would shrink by 0.4% in 2034 and 2.1% in 2054.
