One week into the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, President Donald Trump faces a growing list of risks that threaten to turn his biggest foreign policy gamble into a political nightmare — with his own MAGA base beginning to fracture.
Even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and devastating blows against Iranian forces, the crisis has quickly widened into a regional conflict that threatens a prolonged U.S. military engagement with fallout beyond Trump’s control. That is a scenario Trump had avoided in two terms, preferring swift, limited operations like the January raid in Venezuela and June’s one-off strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
“Iran is a messy and potentially protracted military campaign,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. “Trump is risking the global economy, regional stability and his own Republican Party’s performance in the U.S. midterm elections.”
The MAGA Divide
Despite criticism from some Trump supporters opposed to military interventions, members of his Make America Great Again movement have largely backed him on Iran so far.
But any softening of their support could imperil Republican control of Congress in November, given opinion polls showing opposition to the war among the broader electorate, including a crucial bloc of independent voters.
“The American people are not interested in repeating the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan,” said Brian Darling, a Republican strategist. “The MAGA base is split between those who relied on no-new-war promises and ones who are loyal to Trump’s judgment.”
Online, the split is visible. Influential pro-Trump voices have begun questioning whether the president who promised to end “forever wars” has started one of his own.
“We didn’t vote for this,” one prominent MAGA account posted, garnering hundreds of thousands of views.
Shifting War Aims
High on the list of analysts’ concerns is Trump’s mixed messaging on whether he is seeking regime change in Tehran.
At the outset, he suggested overthrowing Iran’s rulers was a goal, at least by fomenting internal rebellion. Two days later, he stopped short of mentioning that as a priority. Then on Thursday, Trump told Reuters he would play a role in picking Iran’s next leader and encouraged Iranian Kurdish rebels to launch attacks. That was followed by his Friday demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly rejected criticism of shifting objectives, saying Trump has clearly outlined goals to “destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
But analysts say the president has struggled to articulate a detailed set of objectives or a clear endgame for Operation Epic Fury — the biggest U.S. military operation since the 2003 Iraq invasion.
The Regional Quagmire
Across the region, the dangers have escalated with Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf neighbors. Showing that Tehran may still be able to activate proxy groups, Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia has renewed hostilities with Israel, expanding the war to another country.
About 300,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon in four days. The Lebanese health ministry reports 123 killed and 683 wounded from Israeli attacks.
American casualties have been low so far — six service members killed — and Trump has largely shrugged off the prospects for more. Asked whether Americans should worry about Iran-inspired attacks at home, he told Time magazine: “I guess … as I said, some people will die.”
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Middle East, warned: “Nothing is likely to hasten an early end to the war more than American casualties. That’s what Iran is counting on.”
The Oil Shock
One of the most pressing concerns is Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Tanker traffic has halted, with grave economic consequences.
Though Trump has publicly dismissed concern about rising U.S. gas prices, he and his aides have scrambled for ways to mitigate the war’s impact on energy supplies as voters tell pollsters that the cost of living is their top concern.
“It’s an economic pain point on the U.S. economy that it seems was not fully anticipated,” said Josh Lipsky at the Atlantic Council.
One former U.S. military official close to the administration said the widening economic impact had caught Trump’s team by surprise in part because those with knowledge of oil markets were not consulted ahead of the attack.
The White House’s Kelly said “the Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed” but did not specifically address concerns about preparations for a war.
Allies Caught Off Guard
Trump made his decision to press ahead despite warnings from some senior aides that escalation could be difficult to contain, according to two White House officials and a Republican close to the administration.
Some traditional U.S. allies were caught off guard. “It’s a decision-making circle of one,” said one Western diplomat.
While Gulf allies appear to have fallen in line to support the campaign — especially after Tehran targeted them with strikes — not everyone in the region is onboard.
In an open letter to Trump published Thursday, UAE billionaire Khalaf Al Habtoor, a frequent visitor to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, asked: “Who gave you the right to turn our region into a battlefield?”
What Comes Next
The war’s duration is a major unknown likely to determine the extent of its repercussions. With the price tag mounting daily, Trump has said the operation could last four or five weeks or “whatever it takes” — but has offered little explanation of what he envisions will follow.
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, commended U.S. military tactics but told Reuters: “From a political, strategic and diplomatic standpoint, it seems not to have been thought all the way through.”
For Trump, the stakes could not be higher. A president who built his political identity on avoiding foreign entanglements now finds himself entangled in one of the most consequential wars in decades. His base is watching. The midterms are eight months away. And the bombs keep falling.
