The world has never felt this tense before. The New START treaty between the United States and Russia has expired, leaving a dangerous vacuum in nuclear arms control. Now, questions are rising everywhere: Russia, China, US nukes—who will strike first? This is not a small problem. This is a problem for every human on this planet. The United States is accusing China of secret nuclear testing in 2020, while China is denying everything and calling the US narrative false. Meanwhile, Russia and the US are sitting on thousands of warheads with no binding limits.
For ordinary people, this is terrifying. Who is really thinking about safety when governments play this kind of dangerous game? The expiry of New START has reopened the possibility of an arms race the world thought it had left behind decades ago.
The US Accusations Against China
The US claims that China conducted secret nuclear explosive tests in 2020, including yield-producing tests in the hundreds of tons. Thomas DiNanno, the US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control, said China even tried to hide these tests using methods to fool seismic monitoring.
China’s response has been simple: it denies the accusations and says the US is exaggerating the threat. China insists it has acted responsibly and refuses to join new negotiations with the US and Russia at this stage. But the worry is real, DiNanno projects China could have over 1,000 warheads by 2030, and nobody is controlling it.
Expiry of New START: A Dangerous Vacuum
Since the New START treaty started in 2010, the US and Russia have been limited to 1,550 strategic warheads each. That treaty provided at least some level of predictability. Now, for the first time since the Cold War, there is no binding agreement controlling the world’s two biggest nuclear arsenals. This could push both nations to expand their stockpiles, assuming the worst about each other.
Russia says it is ready for dialogue but will also prepare for any scenario. The Kremlin believes nuclear allies of NATO, Britain and France, should be involved in talks, but the Western powers reject that.
China’s Rapid Nuclear Build-Up
While the US and Russia argue over limits, China continues to grow its arsenal quietly. Even though it claims to have fewer warheads, around 600 compared to the thousands held by the US and Russia, it is clearly preparing to catch up. From a common-sense perspective, this is madness. Instead of reducing risk, all three powers are preparing for a worse scenario. Ordinary families in every country are left to hope that nobody miscalculates.
Lessons From the Past
In the Cold War, treaties like New START and the original arms control agreements helped prevent accidental war. They gave some level of trust and verification, keeping countries from thinking the worst about each other. Now, that trust is gone. Analysts warn that it will take years to negotiate a new treaty that includes China, and meanwhile, the clock is ticking.
A Call for Accountability
The governments involved speak about responsibility and stability, but the truth is that no one really knows how far each country is willing to go. Ordinary people across the world have to hope that caution wins over arrogance.
The US wants China at the negotiation table, Russia wants NATO allies included, and China refuses to participate. Meanwhile, nuclear weapons continue to grow, secrecy surrounds tests, and international tension rises.
