Three weeks into the Iran war, President Donald Trump is confronting a crisis that seems to be slipping out of his hands.
Global energy prices are surging. The United States stands isolated from its allies. More troops are preparing to deploy—despite Trump’s promise that the campaign would be only a “short excursion.”
Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He insisted the campaign was unfolding according to plan. On Friday, he declared the battle “was militarily won.”
But his words clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.
“Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “That’s his biggest source of frustration.”
The Limits of Trump’s Power
The limits of Trump’s power—diplomatically, militarily, and politically—were thrown into sharp relief over the past week.
He was caught off-guard by the resistance of fellow NATO members to deploying their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to a White House official. With the president not wanting to appear isolated, some aides have advised Trump to quickly find an “off-ramp” and set limits on the military operation’s scope.
But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway him.
Allies’ unwillingness reflects not only their reluctance over entanglement in a war they were not consulted on, but a backlash against Trump’s belittling of traditional U.S. alliances since his return to office.
Differences with Israel have also begun surfacing. Trump insisted he knew nothing in advance about the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said the strike had indeed been coordinated with the U.S.
A Crossroads With No Clear Path
Trump now finds himself at a crossroads with no clear sign of which path he might take, analysts say.
He could go all-in and intensify the U.S. offensive—possibly seizing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along Iran’s coast to hunt for missile launchers. But that would risk a long-term military commitment that the American public would mostly oppose.
Or, with both sides rejecting negotiations for now, Trump could declare victory and try to walk away. That would alienate Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded, hostile Iran—one that could still pursue a crude nuclear weapon and still exert control over shipping in the Gulf.
Reuters reported Friday that the U.S. military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself.
The MAGA Movement Wavers
The war has also shown that Trump’s once-iron grip over his MAGA movement is weakening. Prominent influencers have spoken out against the conflict. While his base has mostly stood with him so far, analysts say his control could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices keep rising and U.S. troops are deployed.
“As the economics play themselves out,” Republican strategist Dave Wilson said, “people will start to say: ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again? … Why is the Strait of Hormuz now determining whether or not I can take a vacation next month?'”
Miscalculations
Since the war’s start on February 28, there has been a growing realization within the administration that the conflict and its consequences should have been better mapped out in advance, according to two sources familiar with White House thinking. (A White House official countered that the campaign was extensively planned and well-equipped.)
Analysts say Trump’s biggest misjudgment was over how Iran would respond to a conflict it considers existential.
Tehran has retaliated with its remaining missiles and a fleet of armed drones, striking neighboring Gulf states and mostly shutting down the Strait of Hormuz—the conduit for one-fifth of the world’s oil.
“They failed to think through the contingencies around ways in which a conflict with Iran could go sideways, where it might not go according to the plan as they laid out,” said former U.S. ambassador John Bass, who served in Afghanistan and Turkey.
Losing the Narrative
As the conflict has dragged on, there have been increasing signs of Trump’s frustration with his inability to control the narrative. In recent days, he has torn into the news media, advancing unfounded allegations of “treason” for reporting that he sees as undermining the war effort.
“He’s finding it difficult to drive the news cycle, as he’s accustomed to, because he still can’t explain why he’s taken this country to war and what comes next,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration. “He seems to have lost his mojo on messaging.”
What Comes Next
A White House official challenged the characterization of a war spinning out of control, pointing to the elimination of many of Iran’s top leaders, the sinking of most of its navy, and the destruction of its ballistic missile arsenal.
“This has been an undisputed military success,” the official said.
But success on the battlefield has not translated into success in the war. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Oil prices are up 50%. European allies are refusing to help. And Trump, who promised to keep America out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the messaging of the conflict he helped initiate.
Three weeks in, the war that Trump said would be short is not ending. And the president who prided himself on his ability to close deals cannot find the exit.
