US colleges and universities could see another significant decline in international student enrolment as immigration policies and visa restrictions continue to discourage prospective students from studying in the country.
A new report by Common App showed that applications from international students for the 2026-27 academic session had fallen 10% as of March 1, marking the largest decline recorded by the organisation.
The decline follows an already sharp drop in new international students studying in the US. According to a Fall 2025 Snapshot from the US Department of State and the Institute of International Education, the number of newly enrolled international students fell 17% compared with the previous year.
The Institute of International Education’s Spring 2026 Snapshot also projected a further decline in international enrolment for the coming academic year.
Common App data showed particularly notable reductions in applications from students in Asia and Africa. Researchers warned that the decline in students creating accounts on the application platform could further weaken the future pipeline of international students to US institutions.
The trend has been linked in part to changes in student visa policies, including plans to replace the traditional “duration of status” arrangement with a four-year limit for F-1 and J-1 visas. Limited or delayed visa appointment availability and restrictions affecting nationals of certain countries have also added uncertainty.
Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of college consulting firm Crimson Education, said the changes would affect American universities differently.
“They’ll accelerate a sorting that was already underway, where institutions that can’t demonstrate clear return on investment lose enrollment and cut programs, and the very top schools like Harvard, Stanford, MIT and Duke continue standing strong,” he said.
Colleges At Risk
Universities that depend heavily on tuition paid by international students could face financial difficulties if the decline continues.
A separate analysis by Fitch Ratings warned that institutions with large international student populations, particularly those with graduate and STEM programmes that can take more than four years to complete, could be especially vulnerable to the new visa rules.
“Sustained drops in new international student enrollment can have outsized revenue effects, as international students often pay full tuition or receive less institutional aid than domestic students,” Fitch analysts said.
“Lost revenue is hard to replace quickly.”
The analysts added that affected universities “may incur higher costs to address overseas recruitment challenges” as they attempt to maintain their international student pipelines.
Beaton said highly selective universities were likely to remain relatively insulated because of the size of their international applicant pools.
“Their international applicant pools are so deep that even a hypothetical big drop in demand leaves them massively oversubscribed,” he said.
He argued that mid-tier private universities and regional public institutions could face greater pressure because many depend on international students who pay full tuition.
“Mid-ranked private colleges and regional public flagships are quite reliant on full-pay international students, and when those applicants start to diversify to the U.K., Australia or Singapore, these schools can’t backfill the revenue since the domestic pipeline is shrinking with the demographic cliff, and they can’t raise prices on a market already questioning their ROI,” Beaton said.
Wider Economic Impact
The decline could also have consequences beyond the education sector.
The US has traditionally been the world’s leading destination for international students, with India and China among the largest sources. However, NAFSA: Association of International Educators estimates that the projected decline could cost local US economies about $3.4 billion.
The organisation also estimated that as many as 40,000 American jobs could be affected.
NAFSA executive director and CEO Fanta Aw said the figures demonstrated the broader consequences of changes to international education policies.
“The projections underscore what we’ve long warned: U.S. policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future — and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for U.S. society and economy,” Aw said.
