Political forecaster VoteHub has projected Democratic victories in 15 US House of Representatives races in states won by President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, raising the prospect of the party regaining control of the chamber in the November 3 midterm elections.
The races span diverse constituencies, from affluent suburbs in Arizona to industrial communities in Pennsylvania and a predominantly Hispanic district in Texas. Their outcomes could help determine whether Democrats secure a majority in the House despite Republican advantages arising from congressional district boundaries.
VoteHub’s head of data science, Zachary Donnini, told Newsweek by phone that Trump’s standing among voters was a major factor behind the projections.
“First and foremost, Donald Trump is an unpopular president,” Donnini said. “It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that when we’re getting the national generic congressional polling that’s also very good for Democrats.”
He also pointed to the historical challenges faced by the president’s party during midterm elections.
“Midterms are usually tough for the party in power,” Donnini added, noting that no president’s party has retained the House in a first midterm since 2002.
According to Donnini, the projected shift towards Democrats could be felt across much of the country, although the extent would vary by state.
“We expect pretty much the entire country to shift left,” he said. “Some states by huge margins, some states by little margins, some states by medium margins.”
However, he cautioned against interpreting the projections as evidence of a permanent political realignment, describing the anticipated movement as “more of a reaction to the national environment.”
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, similarly expects a significant change from the 2024 election results.
“This is going to be a much bluer year than 2024 was, perhaps a 10-point national swing to the left or so,” Kondik told Newsweek in emailed comments.
He added: “It’s natural that many districts and states that voted for the president are now very much in play in a bluer environment.”
Political scientist Daniel Schatz, a former visiting scholar at Harvard, Stanford and Georgetown, said the number of competitive races could force Republicans to defend more territory than they would typically expect in a midterm cycle.
“Fifteen projected Democratic wins in Republican-held or open seats across Trump-won states is meaningful, not because every one will flip, but because it suggests the Republican defensive map is broader than it should be in a normal cycle,” Schatz told Newsweek in an email.
Harvard Law School professor Nicholas Stephanopoulos, who specialises in election law, highlighted the influence of redistricting on the battle for the House.
He noted that North Carolina, Ohio and Texas had redrawn their congressional maps to benefit Republicans, while Utah created a Democratic district. Arizona, Iowa and Pennsylvania, meanwhile, used processes he described as reasonably fair.
Stephanopoulos said that if Democrats secured approximately an eight-point advantage in the national House popular vote, Republican gerrymandering would still produce “a substantial pro-Republican skew,” but one that “just wouldn’t be big enough to maintain Republican control of the House.”
VoteHub’s forecast, last updated on October 14, gave Democrats an 84 per cent chance of controlling the House. However, analysts warned that the races would be influenced by local circumstances, candidate strength and changes in the national political climate.
Full list of 15 House seats Democrats are favoured to flip
* Arizona 1st: Amish Shah (D) > Jay Feely (R)
* Arizona 6th: JoAnna Mendoza (D) > Juan Ciscomani (R)
* Iowa 1st: Christina Bohannan (D) > Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
* Iowa 3rd: Sarah Trone Garriott (D) > Zach Nunn (R)
* Michigan 7th: William Lawrence (D) > Tom Barrett (R)
* Michigan 10th: Christina Hines (D) > Mike Bouchard Jr (R)
* Nebraska 2nd: Denise Powell (D) > Brinker Harding (R)
* North Carolina 11th: Jamie Ager (D) > Jennifer Balkcom (R)
* Ohio 7th: Brian Poindexter (D) > Max Miller (R)
* Pennsylvania 7th: Bob Brooks (D) > Ryan Mackenzie (R)
* Pennsylvania 8th: Paige Cognetti (D) > Rob Bresnahan (R)
* Pennsylvania 10th: Janelle Stelson (D) > Scott Perry (R)
* Texas 15th: Bobby Pulido (D) > Monica De La Cruz (R)
* Utah 1st: Ben McAdams (D) > Riley Owen (R)
* Wisconsin 3rd: Rebecca Cooke (D) > Derrick Van Orden (R)
Arizona races test suburban and Hispanic voter support
In Arizona’s 1st District, VoteHub favours Democrat Amish Shah over Republican Jay Feely in an affluent constituency centred on Scottsdale.
Donnini said comparatively wealthy white communities were among the areas where Republicans were performing “least bad,” making the contest an important test of movement among suburban voters.
In Arizona’s 6th District, Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is projected to defeat Republican Juan Ciscomani. The Tucson-area constituency includes rural and heavily Hispanic communities, potentially giving Democrats a different voter coalition from the one supporting Shah.
Dave Spencer, host of the Practically Political podcast, told Newsweek by email that Arizona and Texas would help reveal whether some Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 were shifting towards Democrats again, particularly over immigration policy and the cost of living.
Iowa and Nebraska widen Democrats’ opportunities
VoteHub places Democrat Christina Bohannan ahead of Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 1st District, where Democrats came close to winning in 2024.
Donnini described the contest as one of seven narrowly decided seats representing the party’s “low-hanging fruit” in its effort to gain a House majority.
“And that’s basically what they need to flip the chamber,” he said.
Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott is also favoured over Republican Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd District. Donnini said Democrats could benefit in agricultural and transportation-dependent regions affected by higher fuel, trade and logistics costs.
Jim Ronan, an adjunct professor of political science at Villanova University, said the competitiveness of both Iowa races reflected challenges facing Republicans.
“The fact Iowa is so competitive highlights a significant shift in voter attitudes,” Ronan told Newsweek, while cautioning that some traditionally Republican voters could still “come home” by Election Day.
In Nebraska’s 2nd District, VoteHub projects Democrat Denise Powell to defeat Republican Brinker Harding in an open seat centred on Omaha.
The retirement of former Republican Representative Don Bacon, who repeatedly survived in competitive territory, has changed the race. Donnini called it “the single easiest flip on the list.”
Michigan and Wisconsin contests could signal wider movement
In Michigan’s 7th District, Democrat William Lawrence is narrowly favoured over Republican Tom Barrett. Donnini expects a close contest, pointing to Barrett’s previous electoral performance and uncertainty surrounding the Democratic candidate’s strength.
VoteHub also gives Democrat Christina Hines an advantage over Republican Mike Bouchard Jr in Michigan’s 10th District. The outcome could indicate whether a favourable national environment for Democrats extends to House races where local factors may play a significant role.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District is another seat where VoteHub expects Democrats to make gains. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is projected to defeat Republican Derrick Van Orden in a constituency that was held by Democrats for years before switching to Republican control.
Donnini described the projected Democratic gain as “Democrats kind of reclaiming turf.”
Pennsylvania emerges as a key battleground
VoteHub forecasts Democratic victories in three Pennsylvania districts: the 7th, 8th and 10th.
In the 7th District, Democrat Bob Brooks is favoured over Republican Ryan Mackenzie, while Democrat Paige Cognetti is projected to defeat Republican Rob Bresnahan in the 8th.
In the 10th District, Democrat Janelle Stelson is expected to defeat Republican Scott Perry.
Schatz described the contest involving Perry as a test of whether a strongly partisan Republican could remain secure amid an unfavourable national environment.
The three districts were narrowly lost by Democrats in 2024. Donnini said failing to regain them could indicate difficulties for the party in its attempt to win control of the House.
“Not winning them back would be a sign that they might struggle to flip the House,” he said.
North Carolina, Ohio and Texas face competitive races
VoteHub favours Democrat Jamie Ager over Republican Jennifer Balkcom in North Carolina’s 11th District. Donnini expects the race to produce one of the earliest results among the 15 contests.
“If Democrats win North Carolina 11, it’s very likely to be a good night for them,” he said.
In Ohio’s 7th District, Democrat Brian Poindexter is projected to defeat Republican Max Miller in a constituency Republicans would ordinarily expect to retain.
Ronan identified the race as a test of whether candidate-specific difficulties, combined with a strong Democratic year, could push Republicans out of a district that generally favours their party.
Texas’ 15th District presents another challenge for Republicans. VoteHub favours Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning musician, over Republican Monica De La Cruz in a heavily Hispanic constituency that moved towards the GOP in recent elections.
Keith Gaddie, a political scientist at Texas Christian University, said voters he spoke with during a recent visit to South Texas were concerned about “kitchen-table economic issues,” creating difficult conditions for the incumbent.
Gaddie said a sufficiently large Democratic wave could turn the Texas gerrymander into a “dummymander,” a situation in which Republican voters had been spread too thinly across districts to protect all the seats the map was designed to secure.
Utah’s projected flip has a different explanation
Utah’s 1st District is also on VoteHub’s list, with Democrat Ben McAdams favoured over Republican Riley Owen. However, the race differs from the other contests because the district was redrawn by the courts.
“This district is kind of a fake flip because it was completely redrawn by the courts,” Donnini said, explaining that the new boundaries had transformed what was previously safely Republican territory into a district Democrats would ordinarily expect to win.
Schatz said redistricting must be considered when assessing the projections rather than comparing each constituency directly with its 2024 results.
“Redistricting is essential context,” he said. “The correct question is not simply whether Democrats are ahead in Trump-won states, but whether they are outperforming the partisan baseline of the districts as currently drawn.”
Forecasts remain subject to change
VoteHub’s projections could change as campaigns intensify, advertising increases and new polling becomes available ahead of the November 3 midterms.
Schatz warned that forecast models should not be confused with polling results or the outcome of an election.
“A forecast is not a poll, and certainly not an election result,” he said, noting that district-level projections rely on assumptions about turnout, candidate quality and the national political mood.
Spencer also cautioned that dissatisfaction with Trump would not automatically translate into lasting support for Democrats.
“Opposition to Trump doesn’t automatically translate into support for Democrats,” he said, “and that’s the risk in assuming these seats will flip.”
