Democrats have taken a significant 10-point lead over Republicans in one of the final polls before Election Day, according to a new Emerson College survey released Friday.
The poll found 52% of likely voters planned to support the Democratic candidate on the generic congressional ballot, while 42% planned to back the Republican candidate. Democrats are also the most excited group to vote, with 76% saying they are “very excited,” compared with 64% of Republicans and 62% of independents.
The Issues
The poll found that the cost of living and corruption in government were the most important issues to voters deciding whom to support. Thirty-four percent said the cost of living, 28% said fighting corruption in government, 10% said lowering taxes, 8% said fixing immigration laws, 6% said ending the Iran war, and 6% said reforming healthcare.
Among Democrats, fighting corruption (38%) and lowering the cost of living (32%) were the top issues. Among Republicans, lowering the cost of living (31%) and fighting corruption (23%) were also the top issues.
Trump’s Approval
President Donald Trump’s approval rating remained underwater at 37%, with 57% of respondents disapproving of how he is handling his job. Spencer Kimball, director of the Emerson College poll, highlighted the decline since the start of Trump’s second term.
“The 2026 Midterm season wraps with the Republicans at 42%, exactly where they started when tracking began 15 months ago,” Kimball said. “At the time, President Trump’s approval was split, 46% to 47%. Now, the president has a net 20-point disapproval, 37% to 57%.”
He added: “Democratic support climbed eight points over the past fifteen months from 44% to 52%, with undecided and swing voters clearly shifting in the Democrats’ favor. With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats’ congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports.”
The Road to Control
Many polling analysts have predicted Democrats will win the majority in the House of Representatives but that control of the Senate remains up for grabs.
Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats need to win at least 218 seats in the House and gain at least four seats in the Senate to control both chambers.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters between October 24 and 26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The Bottom Line
Democrats hold a 10-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot days before the midterms, according to a new Emerson College poll. Voters cite the cost of living and corruption as their top issues. Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, with 57% disapproving. Democrats are more excited to vote than Republicans or independents. The poll suggests Democrats could expand their lead among the remaining undecided voters.
My Opinion
The Emerson poll shows Democrats ahead 52-42 on the generic ballot. It shows Democrats are more excited to vote than Republicans. It also shows Trump’s approval rating at 37%, with a net 20-point disapproval. And it shows that the two issues voters care about most — the cost of living and corruption — are the two issues Republicans are least equipped to campaign on. They promised lower prices but prices went up. They promised to drain the swamp but the swamp got deeper instead.
Kimball’s analysis is the most damning part. Republicans are exactly where they started 15 months ago. Democrats have gained eight points. Undecided voters are breaking for Democrats but the ceiling may be higher than the poll reports.
The House is likely gone. The Senate is still in play. But if Republicans lose both, they will have no one to blame but themselves. They tied their fortunes to a president with a 37% approval rating. They ran on an economy that is hurting working families. And they spent the final weeks of the campaign fighting among themselves.
