Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is warning his party not to assume that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would lose a general election if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.
Speaking at a campaign event in Michigan on Wednesday, Cruz predicted that if Democrat Abdul El-Sayed wins his Senate race against Republican Mike Rogers, Ocasio-Cortez will become the Democratic nominee in 2028.
“If El-Sayed wins, the Democrat nominee for president in 2028 will be AOC,” Cruz said. “In the primary, the number one argument against AOC is she’s too extreme to win the general.”
Cruz argued that an El-Sayed victory would undermine that argument by showing voters will back a progressive candidate in a competitive state.
The Warning
Cruz cautioned Republicans against assuming an Ocasio-Cortez nomination would guarantee a GOP victory. “We’re a divided country,” he said, pointing to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s success as an example of an outcome many voters would once have considered unlikely.
“Look, if she is the nominee, she could win,” Cruz said.
Democratic strategist Eddie Vale urged caution about drawing conclusions this far from the next presidential election. “Everyone needs to head into 2028 with a big dose of humility about what voters are looking for,” he told Newsweek.
The El-Sayed Attacks
Cruz also escalated his criticism of El-Sayed, saying the Michigan Democrat could pose a national security risk if elected to the Senate and appointed to the Intelligence Committee.
“If I am correct that he is a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is a very real risk that Americans will die as a result,” Cruz said
El-Sayed has denied having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. “I have no ties. We have no ties,” he said in an NBC interview. “You’re using hearsay evidence from a tweet. It’s just not serious.”
Cruz also said El-Sayed could alert suspected terrorists if he gained access to classified intelligence about planned US operations. “We have every reason to believe that Abdul El-Sayed, if he found out that they’re about to apprehend these terrorists, that he would let those terrorists know,” Cruz said.
El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Cole Wozniak told Newsweek: “Ted Cruz is a deeply unpopular politician who has long supported policies that hurt Michigan families. His dangerous comments are just the latest example of Mike Rogers and his MAGA allies attempting to distract voters.”
The Polls
A WDIV-TV/Detroit News poll released Tuesday found El-Sayed leading Rogers by 6.3 points among likely voters, 51.4 percent to 45.1 percent. El-Sayed also had a higher favorable rating than Rogers, 42.2 percent to 32.2 percent.
Other recent polling suggests a tighter race. An InsiderAdvantage survey had El-Sayed ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, while a Marist poll put his lead at 50 percent to 48 percent.
The 2028 Odds
Prediction markets currently place Ocasio-Cortez among the leading contenders for 2028. An average of Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt gave Vice President JD Vance an 18.7 percent implied chance of winning the presidency, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 11.8 percent and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 10.9 percent.
No candidates, including Ocasio-Cortez, have formally declared 2028 presidential campaigns.
The Bottom Line
Sen. Ted Cruz is warning Republicans that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could win the White House in 2028 if Democrats prove that progressive candidates can win competitive races. He also accused Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed of posing a national security risk over alleged Muslim Brotherhood ties, which El-Sayed denies. El-Sayed leads in recent polling. Ocasio-Cortez is among the leading contenders in early 2028 prediction markets.
My Opinion
Every cycle, Cruz finds a Democrat to fearmonger about. In 2020, it was socialism. In 2024, it was the border, and now in 2026, it is AOC and a Michigan Senate candidate he accuses of being a terrorist sympathizer.
His claim that Abdul El-Sayed would leak classified intelligence to terrorists is not a policy argument. It is a smear. El-Sayed has denied ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. He was born in Michigan, raised by an American stepmother, and served as Detroit’s health director. Cruz has no evidence for his accusation.
The real danger is not that Cruz believes what he is saying. It is that his supporters do. When a sitting senator tells a crowd that a political opponent will cause Americans to die, he is inciting them. And when that rhetoric becomes normalized and spreads.
