Canada’s ruling Liberal party has swept three byelections, a result that showed voters backing Prime Minister Mark Carney after his face-off with Donald Trump.
The Canadian Press projected Liberal victories in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord in Quebec, Beaches-East York in Toronto, and North Vancouver-Capilano in British Columbia.
Carney said the results amounted to an endorsement of his government’s approach. “At this consequential time for Canada, voters have placed their trust in our government’s plan,” he said in a statement.
A Dramatic Shift in Quebec
The Quebec result was the most dramatic shift. Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil was projected to win big in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, a district held by the opposition Conservatives since 2018. The region is home to aluminium producers, dairy farms, and other industries caught in an escalating trade war with the US.
“This victory means we can maintain Canadian unity all across the country,” Gobeil said.
The other two seats were previously held by Liberals. In British Columbia, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff Braeden Caley won North Vancouver-Capilano.
The Trump Factor
The Liberal MP Hedy Fry told CBC: “The United States is getting a message tonight. Our leader has the support of the Canadian people.”
US-Canada trade talks collapsed on 21 August after the two sides failed to reach a deal, and Trump imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canada responded with plans for tariffs on US products.
Trump has escalated his attacks on Canada since the talks failed. He signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario as “Lake America,” and on Monday the US Treasury secretary said Canada had limited leverage in the dispute because the US economy was roughly 13 times larger. Trump has repeatedly talked about making Canada the 51st state.
Strengthening Carney’s Hand
The Liberal sweep would bring Carney’s party to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, further strengthening its position. Carney won Canada’s election last year, fuelled by public anger over Trump’s annexation threats, and he has vowed to reduce Canada’s reliance on the US.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, said the sweep showed Carney retaining strong support across regions, and he called the Quebec result the most significant. He said the easy win in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord probably reflected, in part, the popularity in Quebec of Carney’s decision “to pull the plug on trade negotiations with the White House.”
He said the Conservative collapse there was bad news for the party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre. The party had about 41% of the vote in last year’s federal elections but fell to about 13% and third place on Monday. “These numbers do look bad,” Béland said.
The Bottom Line
Canada’s Liberals have swept three byelections, strengthening Prime Minister Mark Carney’s position amid an escalating trade war with the US. The most significant shift was in Quebec, where the Conservatives lost a seat they had held since 2018. Carney said the results showed voters trust his government’s approach to dealing with Trump. Carney, who won last year’s election on a platform of reducing Canada’s reliance on the US, has deepened economic ties with Europe amid the trade dispute.
