China’s population decline has continued for the third consecutive year, driven by aging demographics and low birth rates. According to recent data, the population has decreased by approximately 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion recorded in 2023.
The consequence of China’s population decline are far-reaching as an aging population means a declining workforce, which can influence economic growth and productivity. Also, the low birth rates indicate that the population decline trend is likely to continue, meaning long-term challenges for the country’s social and economic stability.
Friday’s data reiterates the concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle as the aging demographic increases. The rising costs from China’s elderly care and retirement benefits are also likely to pose additional strains for already indebted local governments.
China’s total number of births was 9.54 million versus 9.02 million in 2023, according to a report by the statistics bureau. The birth rate increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 as against 6.39 per 1,000 people recorded in 2023. However, the number of deaths was 10.93 million in 2024, slightly reduced from 11.1 million in 2023.
China’s birth rates have been declining for decades as a result of the one-child policy the Chinese government implemented from 1980 to 2015, and due to rapid urbanization as well.
The high cost of childcare and education, as well as job uncertainty and a slowing economy, have also dissuaded many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family. Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home have also worsened the issue, demographers say.
The Chinese government unveiled a series of measures in 2024 to boost China’s birth rate in the population. In December, they encouraged colleges and universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curriculums to emphasize positive views on marriage, love, fertility, and family. In November, the state council, rallied local governments to direct resources towards fixing China’s population crisis and spread respect for childbearing and marriages “at the right age.”
The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15-to-49, is set to drop by more than two-thirds to under 100 million by the end of the century. The retirement-age population, meanwhile, those aged 60 and over, is expected to increase to over 400 million by 2035 from around 280 million people currently. The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences has said the pension system will run out of funds by 2035.
About 22% of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, were aged 60 or over in 2024, against 296.97 million in 2023, the data showed. Urbanization also gathered pace with the number of people living in cities up by 10.83 million to 943.3 million. The rural population, however, declined to 464.78 million.
For further detailed insights into the global implications of China’s population trends, you can read this comprehensive analysis on World Population Review.
