There was a slight increase in the international price of oil yesterday, the first day of trading in 2025, as Brent crude gained to $74.80 by 0547 GMT, an increase of 17 cents or 0.06%. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 19 cents, or 0.26%, to $71.91 per barrel. On New Year’s Eve, Brent crude gained 65 cents, while WTI saw an increase of 73 cents, closing as if there was an appearance of cautious optimism in the oil market.
Oil investors are keeping a close eye on the global economy, especially China’s chances of bouncing back. In his New Year’s speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised that his government will focus on boosting growth in 2025.
This has raised hopes that China, the world’s second-biggest economy, will need more oil. Reports from a Caixin/S&P global survey showed that the manufacturing activities in China were growing slowly as of December 2024 but highlighted that there is a modest bounce back in services and construction sectors. This halfway improvement from all those measures suggests that more economic improvement would be achieved in the coming months.
However, market participants are also wary of external risks, like the tariff threats from the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Trump, who will take office on January 20, has promised to introduce major trade policies that could shake up global markets. At the same time, traders are waiting for the U.S. oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, which was pushed to Thursday because of the New Year holiday. Experts say this report, along with the upcoming U.S. ISM manufacturing data, could have a big impact on oil prices soon.
Nigeria’s budget proposed for the fiscal year 2025 relies on a projected global price of oil at $75 per barrel, with massive plans by the government to ramp up daily oil production to over two million barrels. This expectation highlights continued dependence on oil revenues that will keep the country afloat against both the domestic and international economic tides.
According to analysts, oil demand from China is likely to peak in the year 2025—the potential price surge. A report released by the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technological Research Institute shows that this year’s demand will be about 770 million tonnes. India became the world’s most populous country and soon might overtake China as Asia’s biggest oil market. An upsurge in demand from India would upthrust the global game price for oil.
