Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have reached a dangerous level, raising questions across diplomatic circles: Has Russia lost Azerbaijan? Relations between the two nations are now hanging by a thread after a series of explosive incidents, arrests, and an old wound that many say was never properly addressed.
The latest clash began on June 27 with a violent police operation in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. During the raid, several ethnic Azeri men were arrested on accusations of involvement in old criminal cases, including murder and assassination. The Russian special forces used extreme force, and two men died during the arrests.
This incident immediately ignited outrage in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani foreign ministry condemned the Russian raid as an “unacceptable act of violence.” In a dramatic move, Azerbaijan canceled all cultural programs linked to Russia. On national television, a prominent presenter described Russia’s actions as “imperial behavior” towards former Soviet states, sending a clear message of defiance.
The fallout worsened when Azerbaijani authorities responded by arresting two Russian journalists from the state-owned Sputnik Azerbaijan. Reports later claimed that these journalists were not simply media workers but were secretly connected to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
Moscow Downplays Crisis, But Azerbaijan Refuses To Back Down
Despite the rising tension, Moscow adopted a cautious tone. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the cancelation of cultural events “regrettable,” adding that the arrests in Yekaterinburg “should not have triggered such a reaction.” Russia’s foreign ministry further argued that those arrested were Russian citizens, regardless of their ethnic background.
But Baku was not interested in softening its stance. Azerbaijan doubled down by arresting more Russian citizens on charges of drug smuggling and organized crime. Images from the courtroom sparked more fury online, with visible signs that some detainees had been physically assaulted.
Social media reports identified some of these men as programmers and tourists from Yekaterinburg, raising further doubts about the motives behind the arrests.
This cycle of arrests continued to spin out of control. More Azeris were arrested in Russia, in both Yekaterinburg and Voronezh. Regional analysts now say the question is no longer whether relations are strained but whether Russia has already lost Azerbaijan.
The Plane Crash That Changed Everything
Many experts point to a critical event that had already left deep scars. On December 25, 2024, a passenger plane from Azerbaijan carrying 62 passengers and five crew members was accidentally shot down by a Russian missile over Grozny.
Russian air defenses were active in the region at the time, but the tragedy sparked outrage in Azerbaijan. The plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people.
Photos from the funerals, showing coffins surrounded by mourners in uniform, became a painful reminder of the incident. While Moscow expressed regret, the explanations did little to heal the damage.
Azerbaijani political analyst Arif Yunusov said the current war of words is no coincidence. According to him, both Moscow and Baku tightly control their media narratives. More importantly, he believes that personal grudges between the presidents, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev—are driving much of the hostility.
Bottom Line
The question now lingers across the region: Has Russia lost Azerbaijan?
With the plane crash still fresh in people’s minds and the latest round of arrests fueling more anger, many believe that Moscow’s grip on Baku is slipping fast.
While the Kremlin may be hoping to calm the waters, Azerbaijan shows no signs of retreating. As both sides continue to trade blows, what was once seen as a stable alliance is now collapsing in full view.
