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Iran Just Changed the Game in the Gulf. Here's What Ships Must Do Now

Iran Just Changed the Game in the Gulf. Here’s What Ships Must Do Now

Somto NwanoluebySomto Nwanolue
8 minutes ago
in Government
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For decades, the Strait of Hormuz was a free waterway. Any vessel of any origin could navigate its waters without asking permission. That era is over.

Iran is now trying to force shippers to comply with a new protocol for transiting the strait — or risk attack.

Tehran has laid out a set of new rules for vessels seeking to transit the waterway, according to a document seen by CNN, pressing ahead with efforts to formalize control over the strait in defiance of US warnings. The move underscores Iran’s determination to cement control over what it sees as a spoil of war — despite repeated American and regional warnings that such control will not be accepted.

The question is no longer whether Iran can disrupt the strait. It has already proven it can. The question now is whether the world will accept Tehran’s new rules — or risk a broader confrontation.

Table of Contents

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  • The New Rules
  • Khamenei’s Vision
  • The Toll Fee
  • The US Response
  • The Long-Term Outlook
  • The Bottom Line

Iran Just Changed the Game in the Gulf. Here's What Ships Must Do Now
The New Rules

Entitled “Vessel Information Declaration,” the document is an application form issued by Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority and must be completed by all transiting vessels to ensure safe passage. The document comprises more than 40 questions, requiring vessels to declare their name and identification number, any “previous name,” country of origin, and destination. It also asks for the nationalities of registered owners, operators, crew members, plus details of the cargo.

According to the authority, the information must be emailed before a vessel can transit. An email includes a warning that “complete and accurate information is essential” and that “any incorrect or incomplete information provided will be the sole responsibility of the applicant, and any resulting consequences will be borne accordingly.”

The warning is not subtle. Provide the wrong information, and the consequences are yours to bear.

Before the US and Israeli campaign against Iran began at the end of February, the strait was free for any vessel to navigate. But since the conflict began, Iran has threatened to strike any ship passing through Hormuz without permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. A number of vessels have come under attack. The vast majority of ship owners and operators have opted not to take the risk of sending their vessels through in defiance of Iran.

Khamenei’s Vision

On Wednesday, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s account on Telegram posted a message laying out his vision for the Persian Gulf. The leader called for a “new regional and global order under the strategy of a strong Iran,” where there would be no place for foreigners and their mischief. He specifically pointed to “using the leverage of closing the strait” as one way to achieve that vision.

At the end of April, a statement attributed to Khamenei indicated Iran would create a mechanism for supervising traffic at the waterway. Iran would implement “new legal frameworks and management of the Strait of Hormuz,” the statement said, which would benefit its neighbors and prove economically fruitful.

“Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away, acting maliciously out of greed, have no place there, except at the bottom of its waters,” it added.

The Toll Fee

It is unclear from the document whether the passage will incur a fee. Tehran has touted the Strait as a potential revenue stream that could help rebuild the country after the destruction caused by American and Israeli strikes. It is reportedly charging up to $2 million per vessel for passage.

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has added guidance clarifying that such payments would not be authorized for US persons or entities. “Payments to the government of Iran or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, directly or indirectly, for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would not be authorized for US persons, including US financial institutions, or for US-owned or -controlled foreign entities,” it said.

That puts US shipping interests in an impossible position. Pay Iran, and face US sanctions. Refuse to pay, and risk attack. The strait has become a trap.

The Iranians have made “demands for payments, payments for toll fees, as we say, for those vessels to be granted permission to sail,” said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk consultancy Marisks. Once they have permission, they sail with “a specific voyage plan which always takes them through between the islands of Kashm and Larak” — close to the Iranian coast.

The US Response

Just as Iran seeks to exert control over the strait, the US naval blockade of shipping to and from Iranian ports continues. At the beginning of this week, President Trump announced the beginning of Project Freedom to assist vessels through the strait, only to pause it within 48 hours at the request of Pakistani mediators.

The project did “add to the aggressive manner of the Iranians who want to control the strait,” according to Maniatis.

Caught in the middle are as many as 20,000 seafarers on nearly 1,000 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, “with their crews in very difficult conditions, bearing all the consequences of a war that is expanding into something more regional.”

“Mariners are not soldiers,” Maniatis said. “They are civilians who are piloting vessels, who are managing global trade. They should not be caught in a situation like this.”

Only 40 ships crossed the strait the entire week to May 3, according to Lloyd’s List. Pre-war traffic would see an average of 120 crossings per day. On Thursday, marine traffic data showed almost no tanker or freight traffic passing through the strait as Iran and the US contest the chokepoint.

The Long-Term Outlook

Analysts say any form of Iranian control would have long-term effects on oil flows through the strait. “There is growing evidence that Iran may seek to retain strategic control of the strait for as long as possible. At the same time, the US may tolerate this outcome,” according to Matt Wright at Kpler, a marine intelligence firm.

US officials have repeatedly said they would not accept Iranian control of the chokepoint. But Wright estimates that should Tehran be able to control the waterway, transits would not exceed half of the pre-war average, with profound consequences for global oil and gas markets.

“Under a long-term Iranian control scenario, transits could rise to 40 to 50 percent of export capacity, but normalization is not achievable,” Wright added.

The Bottom Line

Iran has imposed new rules for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, requiring them to submit a 40-question declaration form to a newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Supreme Leader Khamenei has called for a “new regional and global order” with no place for foreigners. Iran is reportedly charging up to $2 million per vessel for passage — a fee the US has prohibited its entities from paying.

Only 40 ships crossed the strait the entire week to May 3, compared to a pre-war average of 120 crossings per day. Analysts say even under a best-case scenario, transits would not exceed half of pre-war levels.

The strait was once a free waterway. Iran has now rewritten the rules. The question is whether the world will accept them — or whether the standoff will escalate into something even more dangerous.

Tags: federal characterForeign NewsgovernmentGulfiranNewsShips
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Somto Nwanolue

Somto Nwanolue

Somto Nwanolue is a news writer with a keen eye for spotting trending news and crafting engaging stories. Her interests includes beauty, lifestyle and fashion. Her life’s passion is to bring information to the right audience in written medium

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