Following the assassination of Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, tensions have surged in Lebanon, with fears of an escalating conflict driven by a potential Hezbollah attack. The Lebanese people are certain that the powerful Iranian-backed group will seek revenge for Israel’s assassination, leading to widespread anticipation and uncertainty about whether such retaliation could ignite a broader war. As a result, many in Lebanon have been on edge, anxiously awaiting Hezbollah’s response against Israel. The Israelis managed to track him down deep within Hezbollah’s stronghold in South Beirut, which represented both a strategic loss and a public humiliation.
Just hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in an operation that bore all the hallmarks of another Israeli mission. However, Iran continues to signal that its retaliation might be a long-term endeavor.
After a month-long wait, Hezbollah finally made its move at 05:15 on Sunday, launching more than 300 Katyusha rockets and “a large number of drones” across the border into Israel. This was revenge served cold. It was a carefully calibrated strike, and it fell short of some expectations.
Hezbollah claimed it targeted 11 military bases and barracks, declaring the attack a success, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that most of the rockets missed their targets.
Notably, Hezbollah did not aim its firepower at major Israeli cities or critical infrastructure, nor did it deploy its most formidable weapons. The group—designated as a terrorist organization by the UK and the US—is believed to possess more arms than many nations.
Israel, in a “pre-emptive strike” struck first at 04:30, filling the sky with fighter jets targeting Hezbollah’s firing positions. The IDF claimed that this “pre-emptive strike” destroyed thousands of rocket launchers.
In the aftermath, both parties seemed to conclude that neither was seeking an all-out war. Hezbollah made its statement while being mindful of the limits, signaling a potential turning point that may, perhaps, make the Middle East a little safer.
Hezbollah signaled that it’s ready to close the Fuad Shukr chapter—for the moment. “We reserve our right to continue the response at a later point, but for now, the people can be at ease and carry on with their lives,” said Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader. After a tense month, this message was a relief to many Lebanese who had been anxiously awaiting the retaliation strike.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Sunday’s strikes against Hezbollah were “not the end of the story.” What could this mean?
Along the coast in the city of Tyre, Israeli jets swooped low, breaking the sound barrier, but the beach below was more crowded.
This hope is like the break of dawn for Lebanese who feared an escalation. “Everything feels calm today,” said a young man in his 20s who did not want to be named. “Everything returned to normal. The streets have been quiet, but people have come back out. Today, people can breathe.”
Hezbollah stated that it delayed its retaliation to allow time for ceasefire talks in Gaza. However, the latest round of negotiations in Egypt ended with no apparent progress. And while the war in Gaza drags on, with all its horrors, it continues to fuel instability across the Middle East.
