Maine’s high-stakes Senate race between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson could be forced into a ranked-choice runoff, delaying results for a week or more.
Only two names will appear on the ballot for U.S. Senate. But ranked-choice voting could still factor into the outcome because six write-in candidates have declared for the race . The winner must secure a majority of all ballots cast — including those listing a write-in as a first choice and ballots left blank.
If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the race heads to an automatic ranked-choice runoff.
How Ranked-Choice Voting Works
Maine voters approved ranked-choice voting for statewide use in 2016. The system allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference in races with three or more contenders.
If no candidate ranks first on more than 50 percent of total ballots, the last-place finisher is eliminated, and their supporters’ second-choice votes are reallocated. The process repeats until someone crosses the 50 percent threshold.
Ranked-choice voting cannot be used in general elections for state offices because of the state constitution. It applies to federal races and primaries.
The Write-In Factor
The six declared Senate write-in candidates are: Democrats Sigrid Ann Olson and Ashley Webb; independents Brent Andrews, Gina Oswald, and Michael Turcotte; and Joseph Steinberger of the “Faith in Humanity Party”.
Write-in votes for candidates who did not formally declare with the state will not be counted and will be treated as blank.
A two-person race triggering a runoff is not unprecedented in Maine. In 2024, the 2nd District race between Democrat Jared Golden and Republican Austin Theriault went to a runoff after about 3 percent of voters selected neither candidate. Golden ultimately won after a week of tabulation.
The Stakes
The race is one of the most closely watched in the country. Decision Desk HQ forecasts Jackson has a 63 percent chance of defeating Collins, part of a projected 52-48 Democratic Senate majority.
A New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday showed Jackson leading Collins by 6 points, with an 11-point lead among independent voters.
Collins, a five-term incumbent, has sought to distance herself from President Donald Trump, highlighting her votes against his agenda and her breaks with the party . But polling has shown her approval rating deeply underwater, with more than half of Maine voters disapproving of her job performance.
The Bottom Line
Maine’s Senate race between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson could be forced into a ranked-choice runoff because of six declared write-in candidates. The winner must secure a majority of all ballots cast. If no one does, the runoff could delay results for a week or more. Polls show Jackson with a narrow lead in a race that could determine control of the Senate.
