With just one day until the midterm elections, more than 53 million Americans have already cast their ballots, setting a new record for early voting in a midterm election, according to election trackers.
The surge in early participation comes as national polls show Democrats holding a significant advantage over Republicans, and President Donald Trump making a final, frantic push to save his party’s narrow majorities in Congress.
The Numbers
A RealClearPolitics average of surveys through October 30 shows Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 43.1% on the generic congressional ballot, an 8.9-point advantage. An NBC News survey found Democrats ahead 52% to 45%, with independent voters favoring Democrats by 21 points.
Early voting data suggests Democrats are energized. In states that report party affiliation, Democrats accounted for roughly 44% of early ballots cast, against 31% for Republicans. However, analysts caution that Republicans historically prefer voting on Election Day, and the full picture will not be clear until Tuesday night.
Trump’s approval rating remains at a record low. An NBC News poll found 60% of Americans disapprove of his job performance, the highest negative rating of his political career. A Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval at just 32%.
The Senate Firewall
While Democrats are heavily favored to win the House, the Senate remains a coin flip. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority, with Vice President JD Vance holding the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 split.
The latest New York Times/Siena polls show Democratic candidates leading in five Republican-held states: Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska. The race in Iowa is effectively tied.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, a stunning reversal in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Susan Collins 51% to 45%.
Democrats’ odds of retaking the Senate are estimated at 62% by Decision Desk HQ.
The Final Push
Trump has spent the final days barnstorming swing states, making trips to Iowa, Kansas, and Texas that he had initially canceled. He has also promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult American if Republicans hold Congress, a proposal critics have called a blatant attempt to buy votes.
Meanwhile, Republican super PACs have spent an estimated $183 million on television ads focused almost entirely on transgender-related culture war attacks, betting that divisive social issues can overcome voters’ overwhelming concerns about the economy and the cost of living.
Democrats have sought to keep the focus on affordability, with candidates across the country hammering Republicans over high gas prices and inflation driven by Trump’s war with Iran.
The Bottom Line
A record 53 million Americans have already voted in the midterm elections, with Democrats holding a commanding lead in national polls and a narrow edge in key Senate battlegrounds. President Trump’s approval rating is at a career low, and his party is fighting to avoid a wipeout. The House is widely expected to flip to Democrats, while the Senate remains too close to call, hinging on a handful of races in traditionally red states.
