Dangote Petroleum Refinery has scaled back production following maintenance work that disrupted operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility, reducing exports of refined petroleum products to African and European markets.
According to commodity intelligence firm Kpler, crude processing at the refinery has dropped to between 350,000 and 400,000 barrels per day since July 10. The company has consequently revised its July throughput forecast downward to about 450,000 barrels per day, compared to its earlier estimate of 650,000 barrels per day.
The slowdown has been linked to maintenance on the refinery’s Flue Gas Steam Generator (FGSG), a heat recovery system whose repairs have affected production across the plant.
Kpler noted that, unlike previous operational interruptions, the latest maintenance is not connected to the refinery’s residue fluid catalytic cracker, which had previously been regarded as its main operational constraint.
The reduced processing levels are expected to cut July output by approximately 75,000 barrels per day of petrol, 50,000 barrels per day of jet fuel, and 40,000 barrels per day of gasoil, according to the firm’s projections.
As a result, exports of refined petroleum products by sea have fallen to their lowest level in three months.
The maintenance comes only weeks after the refinery significantly increased production. In June, the facility processed nearly 700,000 barrels of crude per day during performance tests, surpassing its installed capacity after optimisation work boosted effective output by roughly 10 per cent.
That increase strengthened Dangote Refinery’s position as one of the Atlantic Basin’s fastest-growing suppliers of refined petroleum products.
Kpler said exports of petrol, diesel and especially aviation fuel to Europe had expanded steadily since March, helping offset supply shortfalls caused by reduced refinery exports from Russia and tighter product flows from parts of the Middle East.
The latest production cut is also significant for Nigeria’s domestic fuel market. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) had earlier disclosed that Dangote Refinery supplied around 90 per cent of the country’s petrol demand in May, making the facility a key player in local fuel supply and pricing.
Earlier this month, the refinery temporarily halted truck loading for petrol purchases in naira before later resuming sales in the local currency after reviewing its pricing structure.
Despite the temporary disruption, analysts believe normal operations could resume soon.
Kpler expects the maintenance work to be completed during the final week of July, allowing the refinery’s crude distillation unit to return to full capacity within days. The catalytic cracker is also projected to operate at between 80 and 90 per cent capacity by the first week of August.
If repairs proceed as planned, refinery throughput is forecast to recover to between 650,000 and 675,000 barrels per day throughout August and September.
However, Kpler cautioned that maintaining operational reliability remains the refinery’s biggest challenge. Since production commenced, the catalytic cracker and related processing units have required maintenance approximately every six to 10 weeks, raising concerns about the plant’s ability to sustain high utilisation over the long term.
The refinery’s operational performance is expected to remain under close scrutiny as the company prepares for a planned stock market listing. Last week, Dangote Refinery announced it had secured $2.5 billion through a private placement to finance its expansion plans.
