Democrats have overtaken Republicans on immigration and established double-digit leads on healthcare, inflation and the cost of living less than three weeks before the US midterm elections, according to a new poll.
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey, conducted between October 9 and 13, found that Americans trusted Democrats more than Republicans to manage 11 of the 12 major issues examined. Republicans maintained an advantage only on crime, leading Democrats by five percentage points.
On immigration, an issue that has traditionally favoured the Republican Party, Democrats held a narrow two-point lead. Their strongest advantage was on healthcare, where they were ahead by 23 percentage points.
Democrats also recorded 14-point leads on education and schools, inflation, and the cost of living. They led by nine points on the economy, transgender issues and tackling government corruption, while their advantage on taxes stood at seven points.
The party also performed better on foreign policy issues, leading Republicans by 11 percentage points on handling the situation with Iran and seven points on the conflict between Israel and Gaza.
The findings come amid growing public concern about rising prices, particularly the cost of fuel, alongside dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and the conflict with Iran.
Trump’s approval rating stood at 33 per cent in the survey, reflecting widespread disapproval of his performance in office.
Economic pressures appear to be a major factor in the changing public assessment of the two parties. Democrats’ 14-point leads on inflation and the cost of living were among the most significant findings, while their nine-point advantage on the economy was the widest recorded on that issue in the poll series since 2022.
Other recent surveys have similarly highlighted the extent of Americans’ concerns about prices.
A Pew Research Center poll of 5,062 US adults, conducted from September 28 to October 4, found that 74 per cent were very concerned about gasoline and energy prices. This represented a substantial increase from 43 per cent in January, before the US military conflict with Iran.
The survey also found that 73 per cent of respondents were very concerned about the prices of food and consumer goods, while 69 per cent expressed serious concern about healthcare costs.
In the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 71 per cent of Americans said gasoline was unaffordable, compared with 28 per cent in February. The figures came as the national average price of gasoline had remained above $4 per gallon for a record 158 days during 2026.
Higher fuel prices have affected household spending and increased costs for businesses, including expenses associated with transporting goods across the country.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 9 found that 78 per cent of Americans blamed Trump’s policies for the rising cost of living. The figure included majorities of both Democratic and Republican respondents.
The survey also recorded widespread dissatisfaction with the administration’s economic management.
Although the findings do not establish that any single policy or event is responsible for public frustration, they indicate that affordability has become a significant concern among Americans across party lines.
The conflict with Iran has also emerged as an important issue in the political debate, particularly as rising energy costs put additional pressure on households.
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey gave Democrats an 11-point advantage over Republicans on handling the situation with Iran. It also found that only 27 per cent of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the conflict, while 70 per cent disapproved.
A majority of respondents considered the decision to use military force against Iran a mistake.
The results suggest that confidence in the administration’s management of the conflict remains low, while Democrats have gained ground on an issue that combines national security with economic concerns.
However, public views on foreign policy can change as circumstances develop, and greater trust in one party on a particular issue does not automatically translate into electoral support.
The latest findings also highlight a significant shift in attitudes towards immigration, where Republicans previously enjoyed a clear advantage.
In November 2023, Republicans led Democrats by 12 percentage points on the issue. By May 2026, their advantage had narrowed to five points in another ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey.
The latest poll indicates that Democrats have now moved ahead by two percentage points.
A September survey by Marist also pointed to the changing political landscape. It found that 41 per cent of registered voters trusted Democrats more to handle immigration, compared with 38 per cent who favoured Republicans.
In 2024, Marist polling on the same issue showed Democrats with 30 per cent support and Republicans with 42 per cent.
The decline in Republican support on immigration comes amid increased scrutiny of the Trump administration’s deportation campaign and its enforcement methods.
High-profile shootings involving federal immigration officers have intensified debate over the tactics used to implement immigration laws.
A February ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that 62 per cent of Americans opposed Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s enforcement tactics following the fatal shootings of two US citizens in Minneapolis. Another 58 per cent believed Trump’s deportation campaign had gone too far.
The latest poll also recorded an advantage for Democrats in congressional voting preferences ahead of the midterm elections.
Among likely voters, 52 per cent said they would support Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 44 per cent who favoured Republicans, giving Democrats an eight-point lead.
The outcome of individual House races will determine which party controls the chamber, but national polling offers an indication of voters’ current preferences.
Historical surveys have shown that polling leads can provide useful context without guaranteeing election outcomes. In 2022, an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found registered voters almost evenly divided between the two parties before Republicans won control of the House in that year’s midterm elections.
By contrast, a similar poll conducted in autumn 2018 showed Democrats leading by 11 percentage points among registered voters. The party subsequently won control of the House that November.
Trump’s approval rating was also a key finding in the latest survey, falling to 33 per cent, while roughly two-thirds of Americans disapproved of his handling of the presidency.
A separate Fox News poll, conducted from October 9 to 12, placed his approval rating at 36 per cent, with 64 per cent disapproving.
The Fox News survey also found that 54 per cent of respondents would vote for a Democratic candidate in a House election if voting were held at the time, compared with 45 per cent who would choose a Republican.
Although the two surveys used different methodologies and samples, both recorded stronger support for Democratic congressional candidates than for their Republican counterparts ahead of the midterm elections.
