President Cyril Ramaphosa’s political clout is taking a massive hit after leading the African National Congress (ANC) into its worst election performance since the end of apartheid. Early results show the ANC limping along with less than 42% of the vote—a sharp fall from the 57.5% it managed in 2019, marking the first time in 30 years it’s failed to secure a majority.
The once mighty ANC, founded by Nelson Mandela and heralded as a liberation movement, now finds itself at a crossroads. The party will need to strike deals with smaller parties to stay in power, likely trading policy promises or top cabinet spots to keep the ship afloat.
Ramaphosa, the former union leader turned business tycoon, faces a potential mutiny. Critics within his deeply fractured party and opposition voices are already calling for his resignation. Yet, in a twist, a senior ANC official insists Ramaphosa should stay on, and analysts agree there’s no clear replacement ready to take the reins.
“There isn’t a clear unifying candidate who could take over from Ramaphosa,” said Anthony Butler, a politics professor at the University of Cape Town. An opinion poll from March even pegged Ramaphosa as the most popular major politician, and the internal power struggles within the ANC make a leadership change even more complex.
As for Ramaphosa, he’s been tight-lipped about the dismal election results. His spokesperson mentioned he’ll address the nation on Sunday when full provisional results are expected.
A History of Scandals and Empty Promises
Ramaphosa’s tenure has been anything but smooth. His presidency nearly toppled in 2022 when a panel suggested he might have engaged in misconduct after a stash of cash was discovered stuffed in furniture at his game farm—a scandal dubbed “Farmgate.” He denied any wrongdoing and managed to secure another term as ANC leader.
Wednesday’s election was touted as the toughest test for the ANC yet, with rampant unemployment, crime, and relentless power outages fueling voter discontent. Ramaphosa, who ascended to ANC leadership in 2017 promising to clean up the party and rejuvenate the economy after Jacob Zuma’s corruption-riddled presidency, has seen little success in these areas.
The early optimism surrounding his leadership evaporated quickly, with the economy still in a slump and scandals continuing to plague top ANC officials.
This week’s electoral setback was compounded by Zuma, who backed a new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe, which siphoned off significant support from the ANC, particularly in Zuma’s stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal.
“Jacob Zuma checkmated Ramaphosa and the ANC. He knew they were vulnerable in KZN,” said political analyst Ralph Mathekga. “This is the end of Ramaphosa’s project … You can’t lose elections and expect things to go on as normal.”
Leadership or Lack Thereof?
Ramaphosa’s leadership style, often criticized as indecisive, is seen by supporters as a means of consensus-building. His early days as a union leader showed a decisiveness now seemingly absent as he grapples with keeping his party together.
Despite his shortcomings, Ramaphosa’s role in advancing South Africa’s position in global politics cannot be ignored. He was a vocal advocate for fair vaccine distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic and recently, South Africa brought a genocide case against Israel to the International Court of Justice.
During the election campaign, Ramaphosa highlighted the ANC’s achievements over the past three decades, yet critics argue he’s failed to present fresh solutions to South Africa’s pressing problems. At the final campaign rally in Soweto, he promised to “do better,” but his words fell on deaf ears as many supporters left before he finished speaking.
Ramaphosa’s future hangs in the balance, and South Africa watches closely as the ANC navigates this turbulent chapter.
