A major security expert has warned that Nigeria needs to wake up to a dangerous new reality. For years, the government had one big advantage in the fight against terrorism in the North: the two main terrorist groups, Boko Haram (JAS) and ISWAP, hated each other and were constantly fighting for control.
But looking at what just happened in Mali last month, experts warn that these broken groups are starting to realize they are stronger together. If Boko Haram and ISWAP stop fighting each other and form a hidden alliance, it could create a security crisis too massive for the Nigerian military to handle.
The Lesson from Mali
To understand why this is so scary, we have to look at what happened in Mali in April 2026. Mali is a country in West Africa that is also fighting terrorist groups. For a long time, the Malian military coped because the armed groups were divided.
That changed completely last month. Two different rebel and terrorist groups put their arguments aside and joined forces. Because they worked together, they were able to overwhelm the military. They captured major northern cities like Kidal and Mopti, took over big military bases, and even attacked the capital city, killing Mali’s Defense Minister.
This taught the whole of West Africa a brutal lesson: when small, violent groups stop fighting each other and team up against the government, the state can collapse very quickly.
How the Danger Is Moving to Nigeria
Right now, Nigeria is dealing with multiple security issues. In the Northeast, there are jihadist terrorists, while the Northwest and North-Central regions are plagued by violent bandits who kidnap people daily.
Up until now, the division between these groups has kept them from completely taking over. For example, the notorious Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau, died during a violent clash with the rival group, ISWAP. This fight weakened Boko Haram and gave the Nigerian military some breathing room.
But experts say that advantage is slipping away. There is fresh evidence that a quiet cooperation is happening behind the scenes:
•Trading Weapons: Boko Haram terrorists in the Northeast are now quietly sending heavy guns and ammunition to the bandits operating in the Northwest.
•Sharing Members: Instead of fighting over territory, the groups are trading fighters and working together on how to pull off big attacks.
Right now, Boko Haram is led by a commander named Bakura Doro, who still opposes ISWAP. But experts warn that if new leaders take over Boko Haram who prefer to work with ISWAP, the two groups will merge completely.
Between November 2025 and April 2026, Nigeria lost two brigadier generals in tough battles in the Northeast. This shows the terrorists are already becoming more daring and dangerous.
What This Means for Daily Life and the Future
If Mali falls completely to terrorists, it will become a massive training ground for jihadists across West Africa. The neighboring country of Niger acts as a shield for Nigeria, but if the terror spreads, Niger will fall, and Nigeria will become the main target.
For the average Nigerian, an alliance like this means the insecurity will spread even faster. If terrorists and bandits merge their networks, it means more coordinated attacks on highways, more school kidnappings, and more communities falling under the control of criminals who force residents to pay them taxes just to survive.
What the Government Needs to Do Right Now
To stop this nightmare from happening, Nigeria cannot afford to keep using the same old strategy. Experts suggest two major changes:
Stop Waiting to Be Attacked: Right now, the Nigerian military mostly stays in fortified bases and waits to defend against attacks. This gives the terrorists all the time they need to meet, plan, and build alliances in rural areas. The military needs to take the fight directly to their hiding places before they can unify.
Work with Our Neighbors: Even though countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso recently left the regional group ECOWAS, Nigeria cannot ignore them. Nigeria must lead the region in sharing intelligence and guarding borders together, because a threat to Niger is a direct threat to Nigeria.
Should the military continue focusing on defending major towns, or should it launch a massive, continuous offensive into the forests to break up these terrorist groups before they can fully combine?
