The bombs are still falling. The blockade is still tightening. But President Donald Trump is now telling the world to watch for an “amazing two days.”
The war with Iran could end soon, he said. Very soon.
In an interview with ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl, Trump said he did not think it would be necessary to extend the two-week ceasefire that expires next week. “I think it can be over very soon. It will end soon,” he said in a separate interview with Fox Business Network. The optimism lifted global stocks. Oil prices climbed back to around $96 a barrel. And behind the scenes, negotiators are preparing to return to the table.
But the guns have not gone silent. And the blockade has not lifted.
The Amazing Two Days
Trump’s prediction is bold. He offered no specifics on what would happen in the next 48 hours to bring the conflict to a close. But the timing is not accidental. Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation at negotiations that ended Sunday without a breakthrough, said he felt positive about where things stand. Officials from Pakistan, Iran, and several Gulf states say negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Islamabad later this week. Iran’s foreign ministry said a Pakistani delegation would likely arrive in Iran on Wednesday to pass on messages from Washington.
The talks last weekend broke down without an agreement. The war began on February 28, launched by Trump alongside Israel. It triggered Iranian attacks on Gulf neighbours and re-ignited the parallel conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now, after weeks of bloodshed, both sides appear to be inching back toward the negotiating table.
Trump told the New York Post that his negotiators were likely to return to Pakistan, thanks largely to the “great job” Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing to moderate the talks. Vance, speaking later at an event in Georgia, said Trump wanted to make a “grand bargain” with Iran. But he acknowledged there is a lot of mistrust between the two countries.
The Blockade That Won’t Stop
Even as Trump talks peace, the US military is tightening the screws. The blockade of Iranian ports is now fully in effect. More vessels are being turned back, including the US-sanctioned, Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry, which was seen heading back through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Eight Iran-linked oil tankers have been intercepted since the blockade began on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported. A US destroyer stopped two oil tankers attempting to leave the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday.
The US military said its blockade has completely halted seaborne trade in and out of Iran. That is a staggering development. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global crude and gas shipments. The war has prompted Iran to effectively shut the strait to ships other than its own, sharply reducing exports from the Gulf, particularly to Asia and Europe. Energy importers are scrambling for alternative supplies.
The oil market faces further tightening. US officials say Washington does not plan to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week.
Iran’s joint military command has warned that it would act to disrupt trade flows in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea — which connects to the Suez Canal — if the US blockade continues. The semi-official Mehr news agency said Iran would use alternative ports away from its southern coastline to bypass the blockade. Another Iranian outlet cited shipping sources as saying maritime traffic was continuing normally.
The truth is likely somewhere in between. But the threat of Iranian retaliation is real. And it would have global consequences.
The Nuclear Sticking Point
Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain the central obstacle to any deal. At last weekend’s talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran — an apparent concession from longstanding demands for a permanent ban. Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.
That gap is significant. But it may be bridgeable.
Speaking in Seoul, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said the length of any moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment is a political decision. He suggested Iran might accept a compromise as a confidence-building measure.
Washington has also pressed for any enriched nuclear material to be removed from Iran. Tehran has demanded that international sanctions against it be lifted. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said an exchange of messages between Tehran and Washington had continued since Iranian negotiators returned home. One source involved in the talks said back-channel communications had made progress in narrowing gaps, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be put forward at a new round of talks.
The Complicating Factor
Even if the US and Iran reach an agreement, the conflict will not end cleanly. Israel has continued to attack Lebanon as it targets Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Israel and the US say that the campaign is not covered by the ceasefire. Iran insists it is. Israeli and Lebanese officials held rare talks in Washington on Tuesday, but no breakthrough has been announced.
The war has already killed an estimated 5,000 people, including about 3,000 in Iran and 2,000 in Lebanon. The governor of Iran’s Tehran province said many of those killed were students, women, teachers, and university professors. Those are not just numbers. They are a human toll that will shape Iranian public opinion for a generation.
The Bottom Line
So what did Trump signal about the Iran war? He said it could end soon — within an “amazing two days.” He said he does not expect to extend the ceasefire that expires next week. Vice President Vance said Trump wants a “grand bargain” with Iran. Negotiating teams are likely to return to Pakistan for more talks. The nuclear gap has narrowed, with the US offering a 20-year suspension and Iran countering with three to five years. Back-channel communications have reportedly made progress.
But the blockade continues. US warships are turning back tankers. Iran has threatened to disrupt trade flows in three major waterways. Israel is still fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon. And 5,000 people are already dead.
