For years, political analysts have said President Trump’s approval rating has a low ceiling but a high floor. His core supporters would never abandon him, the theory went. No matter what happened, his numbers would not collapse.
That floor is now cracking.
Just 37 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, according to a new New York Times/Siena poll. That is a drop of four percentage points from the last Times/Siena poll in January and his lowest approval rating in any Times/Siena survey in either term.
A four-point decline is not seismic. But it places Trump in new political territory. No president’s approval rating has been under 38 percent for more than a few days in the last 17 years, according to the Times’ average. If there has been a floor during this partisan era, Trump’s ratings have fallen to it.
The Issues Driving the Drop
The poll leaves no doubt about what is pulling Trump down. Just 28 percent of voters approve of his handling of the cost of living. Only 31 percent approve of his handling of the war in Iran. And only 30 percent say he made the “right decision” in choosing to attack Iran.
Those are not marginal issues. The cost of living affects every American household. The war in Iran has driven up gas prices and created global uncertainty. Voters are punishing Trump on both fronts.
The most immediate political consequence is for the midterm elections in November. The poll shows Democrats with a double-digit lead — 50 percent to 39 percent — when registered voters are asked which party’s candidate they will support for Congress. That is a notable shift from earlier Times/Siena polls this cycle, which showed Democrats up by only two to five points.
A double-digit lead this far from an election is not a guarantee. But it is a warning sign. The Republican Party has made recent gains through redistricting, but those map advantages may not matter if voters are simply unwilling to pull the lever for GOP candidates.
What This Means for Trump
Trump has defied political gravity before. He has survived scandals, impeachments, and a criminal conviction. His supporters have stayed with him through events that would have ended any other politician’s career.
But the Times/Siena poll suggests that even Trump may have limits. His approval rating is now lower than it has ever been in this survey. The issues driving the decline — inflation and war — are not going away. And voters who are frustrated with the cost of living do not care about redistricting or political strategy. They care about their wallets.
Trump’s team will argue that the poll is an outlier. They will point to other surveys that show a tighter race. But the Times/Siena poll is widely respected, and its finding of a double-digit Democratic lead in the generic ballot is hard to dismiss as noise.
The Bottom Line
President Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 percent in the latest New York Times/Siena poll — his lowest in any Times/Siena survey. Just 28 percent approve of his handling of the cost of living. Only 31 percent approve of his handling of the Iran war. Democrats have opened a double-digit lead in the generic congressional ballot, 50 percent to 39 percent.
For years, Trump’s support was said to have a high floor. That floor is now being tested. And if it breaks, the Republican Party’s midterm problems will extend far beyond redistricting.
