The political atmosphere in Nigeria currently ahead of the 2023 General Election is hitting like wild fire already with a lot of permutations by political analysts. And this article is to X-ray the chances of the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Chances or otherwise of clinching the APC ticket as the candidate of the Party for the 2023 Presidential election.
I am of the opinion that his chances are limited in two undeniable characteristics that surrounds Nigeria’s political arrangements. These two features are: 1. Religion or problem of MUSLIM/MUSLIM ticket. 2. Regional Discrimination on the part of the North towards a “Northern Christian Candidate” or a Southern Muslim candidate.
These two factors will for sure hinge the possibility of the National Leader of getting the Party ticket ahead of the 2023 general election.
Nigeria has already although (unwritten) settled for the non-possibility of MUSLIM/MUSLIM Ticket or CHRISTIAN/CHRISTIAN Ticket since after the case of ABIOLA in June 12. These phenomenon is a great block for Jagaban come 2023.
Now let’s X-ray his chances with a bird view of these two factors mentioned above:
Tinubu is generally seen and believed to be a MUSLIM and as such, automatically must pick a CHRISTIAN for a running mate. Tinubu is from the South and as such MUST pick his running mate from the North. This means that, the running mate MUST be a CHRISTIAN from the NORTH as he cannot possibly pick a Southerner as a running mate. So the possibility of picking a running mate from the south is automatically foreclosed!
Now the political permutations.
Going by the usual antecedents in the history of our polity and voting across tribal, religious and regional linings, the North will rather vote any body who is their son and a Muslim in opposition, than allow a Northerner who does not share same religion with them to come close to presidency.
Ordinarily, the Odd should be fair and open but our country has not grown pass this level of primordial sentiment especially when it comes to power and election. If Tinubu picks a running mate from the North (which is likely going to be the case), the person must be a CHRISTIAN and the North will certainly not be part of that arrangement, and he cannot also possibly go to the south where he came from to pick a running mate. So he is trapped between picking a MUSLIM/MUSLIM ticket and the politics of Religion/Tribal sentiment.
This is a pure dilemma for BAT.
