Arab-American voters are fleeing the Republican Party in droves following a wave of anti-Arab and anti-Islamic rhetoric from MAGA officials in the closing weeks of the midterm campaign, according to a new poll and political analysts.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll published this month found that nearly 60 percent of Arab Americans now support Democratic candidates for Congress, up from roughly 50 percent in 2024. A quarter of Arab Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 say they plan to switch their vote and support Democrats this year. Sixty percent say Trump is unfriendly to the Arab-American community.
The Rhetoric
The shift is driven by explicit hostility from Republican officials. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. opened a Michigan campaign event with the claim that “there’s 500 million Arabs in the world, and yet they don’t produce science, they don’t win the Nobel Prize … they don’t produce literature.”
Trump has accused Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed of being a “jihadist” and a “terrorist,” suggested he “go through a metal detector before he’s allowed to go into the Senate,” and dismissively referred to him as “Mohammed.”
Trump’s former 2024 Michigan outreach co-lead, Bishara Bahbah, publicly condemned the president for crossing a “red line.” “Any attack based on a person’s religion is not acceptable,” Bahbah told The Associated Press. “Abdul El-Sayed was born and raised in the United States. He’s as American as they come.”
Beyond Michigan
The hostility extends beyond states with large Arab-American populations. In Alabama, where Muslims represent about 0.5 percent of the population, Sen. Tommy Tuberville recently singled them out as “the enemy inside the gates.” In Texas, where Muslims account for just 1 percent of residents, Gov. Greg Abbott has ramped up attacks on the Muslim community in Plano over a planned Islamic community center.
The Political Stakes
Michigan alone is home to more than 200,000 registered Arab-American voters. In a race where Republican Mike Rogers is trailing El-Sayed by up to 6 points, those spurned votes could prove decisive.
“Republicans couldn’t be clearer that their party rejects the very idea that an Arab American can be an American at all,” wrote Max Burns, a Democratic strategist, in The Hill. “For the 3.7 million Arab Americans who are looking for a political home, the Democratic Party is happy to welcome you.”
The Bottom Line
Arab-American voters are shifting toward Democrats after a wave of anti-Arab rhetoric from Trump and MAGA allies. Nearly 60 percent now support Democratic candidates, up from 50 percent in 2024. A quarter of Trump’s Arab-American voters plan to switch. The defections could prove decisive in Michigan, where more than 200,000 Arab-American voters live and the Senate race is tightening.
My Opinion
Republicans spent years telling Arab-American voters that they shared their values. They courted them in Michigan, promised them a place in the coalition and then, when it became politically convenient, they called them terrorists and invaders.
This is not a messaging problem. It is a moral failure. You cannot ask for a community’s vote and then demonize their religion, their heritage, and their very right to be American. You cannot call a Senate candidate a “jihadist” and then wonder why his community stops supporting you.
The poll numbers are not surprising. They are a verdict. Nearly 60 percent of Arab Americans now support Democrats. A quarter of Trump’s own Arab-American voters are switching. In Michigan, where more than 200,000 Arab-American voters live, that shift could decide a Senate seat.
