The posters plastered across a scaffolding-clad church on one of Munich’s most elegant boulevards advertise next-generation drones. “Europe’s security under construction,” the sleek black-and-white photographs proclaim.
Such an unapologetic public display of military muscle would have been unimaginable here just a few years ago. But the world outside Germany is changing fast—and taking this country, and the rest of Europe, with it.
The southern region of Bavaria has become Germany’s leading defence technology hub, focusing on AI, drones and aerospace. People here, like most other Europeans, say they feel increasingly exposed—squeezed between an expansionist Russia and an economically aggressive China to the east, and an increasingly unpredictable United States to the west.
According to a recent Eurobarometer poll, more than two-thirds of Europeans—68%—feel their country is under threat.
This autumn, Germany’s Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance warned for the first time since the Cold War that war is no longer “unlikely.” While emphasising that Germany remains safe, it now recommends citizens keep food supplies of three to ten days at home. Just in case.
‘Shock Therapy’
The precarious state of transatlantic relations was the main focus of the Munich Security Conference this weekend—the world’s biggest annual defence gathering. And the most anxiously anticipated speech was that of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
European leaders were seriously on the edge of their seats. Why was a simple 30-minute address given so much importance?
Because Europe-US relations have never been so frayed in the 80 years since World War Two. And this isn’t a bust-up between buddies that will easily blow over.
In the just over 12 months since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has at times insulted European leaders, slapped big tariffs on their exports, and most shockingly of all, threatened Danish sovereignty over Greenland—refusing for a while to rule out taking the island by force.
Speaking at the conference Saturday, Denmark’s still-furious Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Trump’s designs on Greenland remained “the same” despite ongoing trilateral talks. Trump has ruled out military force for now and backed away from threatening economic sanctions on allies. But transatlantic trust was severely damaged.
European powers see in Trump a truly transactional president who thinks nothing of leveraging security or economic relations with his closest allies to get what he wants. Just before being re-elected, he told Europeans the US would not protect nations that didn’t pay their way on defence.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, put it bluntly: “Some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed anymore. Europeans have suffered shock therapy.”
What Rubio Actually Said
When Rubio finally took the stage, his words were laced with historic kinship. “We want Europe to be strong,” he said. “The two great wars of the last century serve for us as a constant reminder that ultimately our destiny is, and will always be, intertwined with yours.”
European politicians in the audience rose to their feet, applauding warmly. They were clearly relieved he hadn’t threatened or berated Europe as Vice President JD Vance famously did at last year’s conference.
But for those listening closely, Rubio’s speech was loyal to themes central to the Trump administration and hard for many European leaders to swallow: anti-climate action, sceptical of globalisation and multilateralism, tough on migration, and pro a new era of Christian Western civilisation.
Rubio was clear: the US wasn’t interested in allies clinging to the old status quo. It wanted to forge a new path, ideally alongside Europe, but only if it shared the same values. This offer of close partnership was conditional, and absent a compromise.
“A bit like a psychologically abusive partner,” one European diplomat said, speaking candidly on condition of anonymity. “He reminded Europe how wonderful the relationship used to be, but then switched to coercion: If you want things to be good between us in the future, you have to do as I say.”
Another diplomat pointed out that of all the European countries Rubio could have visited after his speech, he chose Slovakia and Hungary—viewed by Brussels as two of the EU’s most problematic members, both with Eurosceptic nationalist prime ministers who oppose sending military aid to Ukraine.
The Pentagon’s Message Was Even Blunter
Last week, US Undersecretary of Defence Elbridge Colby delivered an even starker message at a NATO defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels: Europe was no longer a US priority. The Indo-Pacific was.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are reprioritising the defence of our homeland and the protection of our interests in our Hemisphere,” he said.
While emphasising that the US remained committed to NATO’s mutual defence clause, Colby insisted Washington would be reducing its capabilities in Europe, becoming “a more limited and focused” presence. Europe had to become a partner, rather than a dependent, he said, calling for a new “NATO 3.0.”
Europe’s 5-10 Year Window
Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, acknowledged Europe’s complacency. “We got used to the strong support from the US; we got used to our comfort zone in which we used to live. This time is over, definitely over. Washington was right.”
By 2029, the German defence budget will be higher than the UK and French equivalents combined, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pointed out, describing the €150 billion Germany plans to spend on defence as “a staggering amount.”
But not all European nations are moving at the same speed. Rachel Ellehuus, Director-General of defence think-tank RUSI, sees a rift opening across the continent. The Nordic and Baltic nations, along with Germany and the Netherlands, are big defence spenders. Southern Europe, like Spain, remains unapologetic about refusing to increase budgets to Trump’s demanded levels.
France and Britain are both verbally committed to boosting defence spending, Ellehuus says, but are still looking for a “political band-aid” to help explain to voters the trade-offs—higher taxes, less welfare, or more borrowing.
“Europeans need to get to work yesterday and focus,” she says. “They have 5-10 years to stand on their own two feet in terms of conventional defence capabilities.”
Britain’s Balancing Act
In stark contrast to Rubio’s insistence on greater national sovereignty, Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke in favour of greater integration between the UK and Europe on defence—to cut re-armament costs—while emphasising this did not mean turning its back on the United States.
Sophia Gaston, national security expert at Kings College London, said Starmer was able to articulate the nuance of Britain’s strategic outlook.
“Other allies in Europe may be more willing to speak of divergence from Washington, but for Britain it remains a strategic imperative to triangulate within the transatlantic relationship. There will also be times when Britain will have to make hard choices, and Starmer appeared more confident in confronting that reality.”
What Comes Next
The old world order with the West at its core has faded. What comes next for Europe and the US is still very much up in the air.
Rubio called for a new century of Western civilisation. Colby wants a revamped NATO. Starmer appealed for the Western alliance to be remade.
But in these fast-moving, unpredictable times, Europe’s leaders are increasingly turning to à la carte coalitions alongside traditional organisations like NATO or the EU, which are larger and therefore often slower to react. The so-called Coalition of the Willing—led by the UK and France to secure Ukrainian sovereignty in case of an eventual peace deal with Russia—now includes Turkey, New Zealand and Australia.
The message from Washington is: pay up, or be sidelined. Europe has no good options—only hard choices. And the clock is ticking.
