Austria’s political deadlock deepened on Friday after the liberal NEOS party withdrew from coalition negotiations, effectively ending the three-party talks aimed at forming a government. Beate Meinl-Reisinger, the NEOS leader, announced the decision at a press conference, leaving Austria’s political future uncertain and further empowering the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which won September’s election but has been blocked from forming a government.
The Current Political Impasse
Austria like most of its European counterpart experienced an upheave in its September 2024 national election. The FPÖ, led by Herbert Kickl, surged to first place, doubling its vote share by capitalizing on voter frustration over inflation and immigration. However, its victory was short-lived as the party was left stranded and unable to form a government due to resistance from Austria’s mainstream political parties.
President Alexander Van der Bellen, who has the constitutional authority to name the chancellor bypassed the FPÖ and tasked incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) with forming a government. The non-acceptance of FPO’s government by Austria’s political class reflects the deep unease about the party, whose anti-migrant, pro-Russia stance and inflammatory rhetoric have alienated potential coalition partners.
The ÖVP has governed since 2021 in coalition with the Greens, but both parties suffered heavy losses in the September election. Now, with the NEOS stepping away, the ÖVP and the Social Democrats (SPÖ) could attempt to form a two-party coalition. Together, they hold a wafer-thin majority of 92 seats in Austria’s 183-seat parliament, making such an arrangement politically fragile.
FPÖ’s Polarizing Role
The FPÖ’s meteoric rise has been driven by Herbert Kickl, who styles himself as a “people’s chancellor,” a term loaded with historical connotations (the term was once used to describe Hitler). His promises of creating a “fortress Austria” by banning political Islam and implementing re-migration policies have struck a chord with parts of the electorate. The party’s pro-Russia stance, including a 2016 cooperation agreement with Vladimir Putin and boycotts of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speeches, further isolates it on the international stage.
Despite its electoral success, the FPÖ faces a Catch-22. Kickl’s uncompromising leadership and divisive reputation make him unacceptable to potential coalition partners. The ÖVP has not ruled out working with the FPÖ but has firmly rejected the possibility of Kickl becoming chancellor. Meanwhile, the Liberals, Greens, and SPÖ have also refused to back an FPÖ-led government, leaving the party unable to govern despite its first-place finish.
The Stakes for Austria
Austria’s political instability has broader implications for the country and also within the EU. The failure to form a stable government undermines its influence within the European Union, where it has traditionally played a significant role. Domestically, the deadlock risks further alienating voters who feel the mainstream parties are conspiring against the FPÖ, potentially strengthening far-right narratives.
The prospect of a two-way coalition between the SPÖ and ÖVP raises its own challenges. While it would exclude the FPÖ, such an alliance could be perceived as a desperate attempt by the political establishment to sideline the far right. This could fuel further voter disillusionment and strengthen the FPÖ’s position in future elections.
What Happens Next?
President Van der Bellen is expected to name Austria’s next chancellor by January. If the SPÖ and ÖVP fail to reach an agreement, Austria may face snap elections, prolonging the political uncertainty. Meanwhile, the FPÖ will likely use the deadlock to bolster its claims of being the only party capable of addressing Austria’s challenges. Now Austria like most of its European counterpart is in a fix, the country must navigate a delicate balance of forming a government that reflects the electoral will while preserving the country’s democratic integrity and stability. Whether this is possible without further polarizing Austrian society remains to be seen.
