For decades, India worried about having too many people. Now, it faces the opposite problem of not having enough children.
India’s fertility rate has for the first time fallen below the level needed to stop the population from shrinking, raising concerns about future labor shortages and an aging society. The latest Sample Registration System report, released last month by India’s Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, said that India’s Total Fertility Rate had dropped to 1.9 children per woman — lower than the benchmark level of 2.1 needed to keep the population stable in the long run.
In the 2000s, India’s fertility rate was around 3.3 births per woman. The decline has been rapid. And the consequences could be profound.
“The demographic dividend is ending,” experts warn. India entered its demographic dividend phase in 2005, when the proportion of working-age population exceeded the number of dependents. That phase was expected to last until 2055. Now, with a shrinking workforce and a rapidly aging population, India may not be able to reap the full benefits.
“If there are fewer children born, then in about 30 to 40 years, India will have more older people who cannot participate in the labor force as much, posing a challenge to the country’s workforce,” Dipa Sinha, a development economist who works on social policy in India, told Al Jazeera.
Why Is Fertility Falling?
Experts point to several factors driving the decline. Better access to education and contraceptives. Increased costs of raising children. And lower infant mortality rates, which reduce the desire to have more children.
“Total fertility rate often drops when more women in society have access to education, contraceptives and more agency in decision-making in households,” Sinha said. “It also drops when the economy becomes expensive so raising children also becomes expensive.”
According to the latest SRS report, India has recorded a significant decline in infant deaths from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2024. Fewer children dying means families feel less need to have extra children as “insurance.”
The North-South Divide
The fertility decline is not uniform across India. The poorest states, such as Bihar in northern India, with the lowest levels of education and high infant mortality rates, recorded the highest fertility rate in the country at 2.9, followed by 2.6 in Uttar Pradesh.
By contrast, India’s capital, New Delhi — with among the highest levels of education and lowest infant mortality rates — registered the lowest fertility rate, with an average of 1.2 births per woman. Southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, with among the best health and education systems in India, recorded a rate of 1.3.
“A lot of studies on regional development in India from the early 80s have revealed that states in the South have developed faster with respect to both the economy and women’s status in society. So these reasons have contributed to the lower fertility rate,” Sinha said.
This divide has political consequences. Southern states have already been complaining that the federal government — especially under Prime Minister Narendra Modi — is being “punished” with fewer funds. Later this year, India’s government will introduce a policy called “delimitation,” which will assign seats to each state according to population figures based on the new census that began earlier this year and will conclude in 2027.
“When delimitation comes into effect, there is a fear that the share of southern seats in Parliament will reduce,” Sinha added.
The Political Flashpoint
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has long stirred the stereotype that Muslims in India are producing more children than Hindus — fanning fears among Hindus that Muslims might someday overtake them as the majority faith. The Hindu far-right has been urging Hindus to have more kids. In February, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat urged Hindu couples to have at least three to four children to prevent the community’s long-term societal decline.
But the data tells a different story. The Muslim population of India was 13 percent in the last census in 2011. Government data shows that the Muslim fertility rate has been falling faster than in any other religious group, including Hindus. The fertility rate among Muslims fell from 4.41 to 2.36 between 1992 and 2021, while it dropped from 3.3 to 1.94 for Hindus.
The latest survey further suggests that India’s fertility rate is falling sharply across all faiths.
How Is India Responding?
While the Indian government has not yet announced a nationwide policy to tackle its falling fertility rate, individual states have been trying to encourage people to have more children.
Last month, the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh said families will receive 30,000 rupees ($314) for the birth of a third child and 40,000 rupees ($418) for a fourth child. According to the SRS data, Andhra Pradesh’s fertility rate is 1.4.
States such as Goa in the west and Karnataka and Telangana in the south have introduced state-funded IVF centers for first-time parents, encouraging people to have more children.
Sinha said the Indian government should respect people’s individual reproductive choices and support them. “It is important for countries like India to develop a public policy based on its demographic structure and future needs. So if we are going to be an aging population, then we have to be ready to help a lot of old people,” she said.
The country needs “a policy now which guarantees that they have better healthcare, pensions and social security in old age.”
The Bottom Line
India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement level for the first time, dropping to 1.9 children per woman. The decline is driven by better education, access to contraceptives, and the rising cost of raising children. But the consequences could be severe: a shrinking workforce, an aging population, and a shortened demographic dividend. Regional disparities are stark, with Bihar at 2.9 and Delhi at 1.2. Political tensions over population-based seat allocation are already brewing. And while some states offer cash incentives for more children, experts say India needs a national policy focused on supporting the elderly — not just encouraging more births.
India spent decades trying to slow its population growth. Now, it must learn how to manage a population that is growing old before it has grown rich.
