Eritrea and Ethiopia, two neighbours with a long and tumultuous history, are once again teetering on the edge of war. Decades of conflict, uneasy truces, and shifting alliances have left these Horn of Africa nations locked in a dangerous dance, one that looks to be pushing towards violence. Rising tensions, territorial ambitions, and deep-seated grudges are pushing these neighbours closer to the brink.
Could this be the start of another devastating war? What is fueling this renewed hostility? And why do these two nations seem trapped in a cycle of conflict?
A History of War, Revenge, and Unfinished Business
Ethiopia and Eritrea’s relationship has been shaped by war and hostility. Eritrea was once part of Ethiopia, but after decades of armed struggle, it finally secured independence in 1993. However, the two nations never settled their border disputes.
By 1998, war erupted over the small but symbolic town of Badme. The fighting lasted two years, leaving tens of thousands dead. In 2002, an international court ruled that Badme belonged to Eritrea, but Ethiopia refused to withdraw, keeping tensions high for nearly two decades.
The turning point came in 2018 when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a peace deal with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. This agreement formally ended the hostilities and even earned Abiy a Nobel Peace Prize. But now, that fragile peace is falling apart, both sides appear to be preparing for another round of conflict.
Why Are Eritrea and Ethiopia on the Brink of War?
The recent tension between these countries is fueled by several factors. First, Eritrea, who was a key player in the Ethiopian civil war, felt betrayed after Ethiopia signed a Peace Deal with Tigray behind its back. The Ethiopian Civil War (2020–2022) was a brutal conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrea, seeing an opportunity to destroy its long-time enemy, sided with Ethiopia and sent troops to support the federal government. For Eritrea though, joining the war was a strategic move driven by three key motives:
- Revenge Against TPLF: The TPLF had been Eritrea’s arch-nemesis since the 1998 war, and Eritrea saw the conflict as a chance to settle old scores.
- Breaking Diplomatic Isolation: Eritrea had spent years under sanctions and international isolation. Aligning with Ethiopia gave it a chance to re-enter regional politics.
- Weakening Ethiopia for Future Gains: A weakened Ethiopia would allow Eritrea to maintain its influence and potentially shape Ethiopia’s future political landscape.
However, in 2022, Ethiopia and the TPLF signed a peace deal in Pretoria without Eritrea’s involvement. A move Eritrea saw as a betrayal and accusing Ethiopia of abandoning its wartime ally. Since then, relations have deteriorated, with Eritrea refusing to recognize the agreement and Ethiopia looking to distance itself from its former partner.
Secondly, Ethiopia’s desperate push for a Red Sea port further drove a wedge between the shaky friends. Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country, but it is landlocked, a major economic and geopolitical disadvantage. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly stated that Ethiopia needs direct access to the sea, he has even suggested gaining access by force if need be, which could potentially mean through Eritrea.
But in January 2024, Ethiopia struck a controversial deal with Somaliland, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. This reduced tension between Eritrea and Ethiopia but angered Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory.
In response, Somalia strengthened ties with Eritrea and Egypt, two of Ethiopia’s biggest rivals and shaky alliances. The three countries formed a new regional alliance aimed at countering Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions. Eritrea, seeing an opportunity to pressure Ethiopia, played a leading role in forging this partnership.
For Ethiopia, the message was clear: Eritrea was actively working to isolate and weaken Addis Ababa. This added yet another layer of hostility between the two nations.
Adding to the already tense relationship between both countries was a series of economic disputes leading to growing resentments between them. Eritrea in July 2024 banned Ethiopian Airlines from flying to Asmara, citing allegations of luggage theft and unfair pricing. Ethiopian Airlines denied the accusations but responded by suspending all flights to Eritrea in September 2024.
This economic standoff signalled a deeper rift. Trade between the two nations, which had briefly flourished after the 2018 peace deal, has now come to a near halt. Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of exploiting economic ties for its own gain, while Ethiopia sees Eritrea’s actions as yet another hostile move.
Tension between them grew and by early 2025, signs of war preparation became undeniable Eritrea began mass military recruitment and imposed foreign travel bans on its citizens, a move often associated with wartime mobilization.
Ethiopia allowed Birged Nhamedu, an anti-Eritrean political movement, to open an office in Addis Ababa. This was seen as a direct challenge to Eritrean authority.
Troop movements along the border increased, with both countries reinforcing their military presence.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has been accused of trying to reignite conflict in northern Ethiopia by exploiting divisions within Tigray. Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn even publicly warned that Eritrea was actively working to destabilize the region. Eritrea, for its part, has denied the accusations, calling them an attempt by Ethiopia to shift blame for its internal problems.
With both nations engaging in aggressive posturing and military buildup, the risk of a sudden clash is dangerously high.
Could War Be Inevitable?
With each passing month, the chances of a diplomatic resolution shrink. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia are ruled by leaders with strong nationalist rhetoric and a history of military aggression. Neither side appears willing to back down.
If war erupts, it won’t just be a bilateral conflict it could engulf the entire Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt are already entangled in complex rivalries. A new war could trigger a regional crisis, drawing in multiple countries and leading to widespread instability.
For now, the world watches as Eritrea and Ethiopia edge closer to the abyss. One wrong move, one miscalculation, and history could repeat itself in the most devastating way possible.
