In a pivotal step toward financial and political recovery, Lebanese lawmakers will be electing a president on Thursday, ending more than two years of political paralysis. Army chief Joseph Aoun has emerged as the frontrunner, with analysts suggesting he could play a crucial role in stabilizing the country, particularly in implementing a truce in southern Lebanon.
A Prolonged Power Vacuum
Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022. Previous attempts to elect a successor were thwarted by a deeply divided parliament, split between pro- and anti-Hezbollah blocs.
The stalemate was exacerbated by regional and internal dynamics, but the situation shifted following a series of events. Last autumn, a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah significantly weakened the Shiite militant group, which also lost its long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Compounding Hezbollah’s setbacks, its ally in neighboring Syria, President Bashar al-Assad, was ousted by rebels last month.
Renewed Momentum Amid International Pressure
With a fragile ceasefire in place in southern Lebanon since late November, the 13th parliamentary session to elect a president is set to begin at 11:00 am (0900 GMT). Historically, Lebanon’s political elite has reached consensus on a candidate before successful votes, a tradition rooted in the country’s history of division and civil war from 1975 to 1990.
Ahead of the session, international pressure has intensified. French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian is expected to attend the vote, while U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut earlier this week to urge lawmakers to ensure a successful election. Saudi Arabia has also shown renewed interest, with a top envoy visiting Lebanon twice in two weeks.
Joseph Aoun: A Consensus Candidate?
According to lawmakers who met with the Saudi and U.S. envoys, both nations appear to back Joseph Aoun for the presidency. His military background and perceived neutrality make him a candidate capable of bridging Lebanon’s deep political divides.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed optimism on Wednesday. “For the first time since the presidency became vacant, I am pleased that, God willing, tomorrow we will have a president,” he stated.
Why it Matters
Electing a president is a critical step for Lebanon, a small country that has consistently grappled with political instability, economic collapse, and now a worsening humanitarian crisis. A new leader at this time could facilitate reforms, improve governance, and restore international confidence in the country’s ability to recover from years of turmoil.
Therefore, the outcome of Thursday’s vote will not only shape Lebanon’s immediate future but also signal the country’s readiness to navigate its challenges and mend internal divisions.
