Lagos, Nigeria – In a candid assessment of President Bola Tinubu’s first year in office, renowned economist, Bismarck Rewane, has painted a dire picture of Nigeria’s economic performance. Speaking on Channels Television on Wednesday, Rewane categorized the country’s economic performance into the good, bad, and ugly, highlighting areas of concern and potential for improvement.
According to Rewane, Nigeria’s economic metrics and rankings have declined significantly, with the country trailing behind its African peers in key indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and GDP per capita. He noted that while Nigeria’s GDP growth stood at 2.98% in 2023, South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana recorded 1.93%, 4%, and 3.8% respectively. Inflation also remains a major challenge, with Nigeria’s rate standing at 33% compared to 5% in South Africa and Kenya, and 25% in Ghana.
Furthermore, Rewane highlighted the country’s dwindling external reserves, which have fallen below those of Ghana, a country Nigeria once surpassed. He attributed this decline to structural and exogenous factors, including rent-seeking, market structure issues, energy crunch, regulatory bottlenecks, declining labor productivity, and demographic pressures.
The economist also criticized the government’s policy announcements, citing the $1 trillion GDP goal as an example of a well-intentioned but poorly executed plan. He noted that the time lag between policy announcements and their effects has been a drag on outcomes, leading to unintended consequences such as social unrest.
Rewane identified the cost of living crisis and minimum wage negotiations as sources of widespread conflict, and attributed the economic weakness to both structural and exogenous factors. He listed exogenous shocks such as COVID-19 disruptions, post-COVID global supply chain disruptions, political tensions, high global interest rates, transit developments, and social unrest as contributing factors.
Despite the bleak picture, Rewane expressed optimism that policy changes, institutional reforms, and new borrowings could lead to positive and faster growth from 2025 to 2026. He urged the government to address the structural challenges and exogenous shocks to stimulate economic growth and improve the living standards of Nigerians.
In Essence
Rewane’s assessment serves as a wake-up call for the government to reassess its economic policies and strategies. As Nigeria marks one year of President Tinubu’s administration, it is clear that urgent action is needed to address the country’s economic challenges and unlock its full potential.
