In a move that reverberated across poorer countries grappling with inflation, climate shocks, and conflict, Russia announced its withdrawal from the Black Sea grains pact, allowing Ukrainian grains to leave Black Sea ports. The pact, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022, had been instrumental in stabilizing global food prices and providing much-needed access to food for aid agencies during times of rising demands and limited funding.
Impact on Vulnerable Nations
For nations like Somalia, the deal had brought significant relief. Wheat prices in the capital, Mogadishu, had plummeted by a quarter after the agreement was signed, alleviating some of the strain caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Moscow’s latest announcement has brought about a sense of dread among traders, bakers, and victims of armed conflicts and droughts in the region.
Halima Hussein, a mother of five residing in a crowded Mogadishu camp for displaced people, expressed her fears, saying, “I don’t know how we will survive. Aid agencies try their best to sustain our lives. They have very little to give.”
Traders in Mogadishu anticipate a potential rise in wheat grain prices from the current $20 to nearly $30 for a 50 kg bag, further exacerbating the situation for those already struggling to make ends meet.
Ripple Effects on Other Countries
Even better-off countries like Kenya could feel the pinch. Dealing with the Horn of Africa’s worst drought in decades, Kenya’s foreign affairs ministry’s permanent secretary, Korir Sing’Oei, warned that already historically high food prices would surge even further.
The deal had also benefited Egypt, the world’s leading wheat importer. Rising global wheat prices after the war had put immense financial pressure on the government, which provided subsidized bread to millions of people. The resulting spike in prices of unsubsidized bread added to the burden of families that had already endured years of austerity.
UN’s Standpoint and Russia’s Reasons
The United Nations, along with Turkey, had brokered the grains deal, arguing that it helped lower food prices globally by over 20% and significantly benefited poor countries. The UN World Food Programme relied heavily on Ukrainian grains to provide assistance to countries facing conflicts and extreme weather conditions, including Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan.
Russia’s decision to quit the pact stems from its demand to improve its grain and fertilizer exports, which had not been met. The Kremlin also complained that insufficient grain had reached needy nations. However, analysts pointed out that global grain availability had improved due to increased supplies from producers like Russia and Brazil since the war began.
Potential Ramifications
Experts predict that staple food prices could rise as a consequence of Russia’s withdrawal from the pact. This development, coupled with reduced supply from Ukraine—one of the world’s major grains suppliers—may lead to instability in global markets, prompting countries with modest surpluses to withhold exports.
Shashwat Saraf, the emergency director in East Africa for the International Rescue Committee (IRC), warned that the impacts would be far-reaching in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, particularly due to the region’s severe drought. Aid agencies like the IRC would have to raise the value of cash transfers provided to the hungry population to buy food, possibly leading to a reduction in the number of beneficiaries.
As vulnerable nations and aid agencies brace for the repercussions of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grains pact, the situation remains uncertain. The international community will closely monitor the developments in global food markets and explore potential solutions to mitigate the impact on millions of people already struggling with food insecurity and economic challenges.
