According to a study published on Wednesday, March 20, the fertility rates in almost all the countries will be too low to sustain population levels by the end of this century.
The study also reported that most of the world’s live births would occur in the poorer nations.
Senior researcher, Stein Emil Vollset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle had said in a statement that the trend will lead to a “baby boom” and “baby bust” division across the world. The boom is estimated to be concentrated in low-income countries that are more prone to economic and political instability,
This dire forecast is based on surveys, censuses, and other sources of data amassed from 1950 through 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Over half of the live births will take place in sub-Saharan Africa, researchers have said.
The study revealed that the global fertility rate – the average number of births per woman – has plummeted from around 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
In 2021, about 110 countries and territories (54%) had rates below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The study additionally highlighted the growing trend for countries like South Korea and Serbia, where the fertility rate was less than 1.1 child per female, exposing them to challenges of a diminishing workforce.
While the declining fertility rates in high-income countries show more opportunities for education and employment for women, researchers have said that the trend spotlights a desperate need for improvement in access to modern contraception and female education in other regions.
The authors of the study had however, noted that the predictions were limited by quantity and quality of past data, especially for the 2020 to 2021 COVID-19 pandemic period.
