Syria has undergone one of the most consequential political shifts in its modern history. In December 2024, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies ousted President Bashar al-Assad, bringing an end to more than five decades of his family’s rule. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, now known by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, took up the role as interim leader for a peaceful transitional period On March 13, 2025, the new interim President Al-Sharaa signed a temporary constitution, placing the country under Islamist rule for five years.
This seismic shift is sending shockwaves both within Syria and beyond. With the nation now governed by an Islamist framework, many are questioning what this means for its internal stability, its relationships with neighboring states, and its standing in the international community.
What This Means for Syria: A New Order or More Chaos?
Syria’s transformation to Islamic rule represents a radical redefinition of the country’s political and social landscape.
The new constitution establishes Islamic law as the foundation of governance while retaining provisions for freedoms of speech and the press. Interim Prime Minister Mohammad Al-Bashir has sought to reassure Syria’s diverse population including Christians, Alawites, Druze, and Kurds that their rights will be “guaranteed.”
But words alone won’t heal deep-seated sectarian divides. Reports of violent clashes between Alawite fighters loyal to the former Assad regime and Islamist-led forces have already surfaced, resulting in civilian casualties. The new government now faces a daunting challenge of unifying a fractured nation, addressing the grievances of minority groups, and ensuring that Syria does not spiral back into another civil war
Regional Implications: Allies, Enemies, and Uncertain Borders
Syria’s shift to Islamist rule has elicited varied reactions from neighboring countries. Turkey, a longstanding supporter of opposition groups in Syria against the Assad regime, had wasted no time in engaging diplomatically with the new government. High-level Turkish officials, including the foreign and defense ministers, recently visited Damascus to discuss bilateral relations and regional security concerns, particularly containing Kurdish militant groups near the border. Turkey’s involvement with the interim government underlines its strategic interest in influencing Syria’s political trajectory. However, whether Turkey can forge a stable relationship with Syria’s new Islamist leadership cannot be outrightly determined.
Conversely, the change in Syria’s governance has raised alarms in Israel. The Israeli government views this transition as a security nightmare. The Israeli government fears that Islamist rule could embolden militant groups, threatening Isreali border security and regional stability. In response, Israel already launched airstrikes against suspected militant positions and reinforced its military presence in the Golan Heights. Isreal is taking no chances especially with Syria’s new leaders now in control of Assad’s vast arsenal, including chemical weapons.
Neighboring countries, including Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon are watching events unfold with a mix of concern and pragmatism. These nations have urged the West to lift sanctions on Syria, arguing that these reconciliatory efforts could help stabilize the country and prevent a refugee crisis. But behind the diplomatic gestures lies a shared fear: if Syria collapses into deeper chaos, extremist elements could spill over into their own borders.
Global Stakes: A Ticking Time Bomb or a New Diplomatic Opportunity?
The international community is approaching Syria’s new Islamist government with caution. While some countries have expressed willingness to engage diplomatically, there is widespread concern about the protection of human rights, the treatment of minorities, and the potential for Syria to become a haven for extremist groups. Russia, a former ally of Assad, has privately criticized Syria’s new leaders in closed United Nations meetings, warning against the rise of jihadists and expressing alarm over sectarian violence reminiscent of historical genocides.
Western nations, the United States and Europe have expressed unwillingness to lift economic sanctions. They are seeking reassurances of an inclusive political system geared towards respect for human rights and minority protection. However, some view the integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into the national military as a step in the right direction, suggesting that there may still be room for cautious diplomacy.
Syria at a Crossroads: What Comes Next?
Syria’s embrace of Islamist rule marks one of the most significant political realignments in the Middle East in decades. This realignment could have far reaching consequences for Syria and the region at large. The interim government’s ability to navigate internal divisions, foster regional cooperation, and address international concerns will be pivotal in determining Syria’s path toward stability and reintegration into the global community.
