President Donald Trump reversed course Sunday on his administration’s de facto oil blockade of Cuba, announcing he had “no problem” with any country sending crude to the island as a sanctioned Russian tanker steamed toward Cuban waters with a badly needed shipment.
“If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that, whether it’s Russia or not,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
“Cuba is finished. They have a bad regime. They have very bad and corrupt leadership, and whether or not they get a boat of oil, it’s not going to matter,” he said. “I’d prefer letting it in, whether it’s Russia or anybody else, because the people need heat and cooling and all of the other things that you need.”
The statement marked a dramatic reversal from the administration’s months-long effort to strangle Cuba’s economy by cutting off its oil supply.
The Tanker
The Anatoly Kolodkin, a sanctioned Russian vessel operating as part of Moscow’s “shadow fleet,” was just off the coast of eastern Cuba on Sunday, according to ship-tracking data. It is expected to dock in Matanzas on Monday, carrying an estimated 650,000 to 730,000 barrels of crude.
For Cuba, the cargo is a lifeline. The country has not received an oil tanker in three months, according to President Miguel Díaz-Canel. The resulting energy crisis has led to strict gasoline rationing and rolling blackouts across the island of 10 million people. Cuban health officials have warned that the crisis has increased mortality risk for cancer patients, particularly children.
The Blockade
The U.S. cut off Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba after toppling Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 . Trump then threatened to impose punishing tariffs on any other country that sent crude to Cuba. Mexico, the largest supplier alongside Venezuela, halted its shipments.
The U.S. had also imposed sanctions on the tanker itself. Under earlier guidance, Anatoly Kolodkin would have been subject to interdiction. The Treasury Department issued new sanctions waivers in March to ease global oil flows amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, but those exemptions explicitly excluded transactions involving Cuba.
This time, the U.S. Coast Guard allowed the sanctioned vessel to sail to Cuba without interception. Two U.S. Coast Guard cutters that had been positioned nearby did not move to block it.
The New York Times, citing a U.S. official briefed on the matter, reported the Coast Guard allowed the passage, though it was unclear why. Blocking the tanker by force could have escalated the risk of conflict with Russia at a precarious moment in global geopolitics.
The Politics
Trump’s justification was as notable as his policy shift. He expressed sympathy for the Cuban people’s need for energy and said he was unconcerned with any assistance the shipments might provide the Communist government because he predicted it would soon fall on its own.
But the administration’s actions tell a different story. Just days earlier, Trump issued a series of threatening statements against the Cuban government and said he would turn more of his attention to the island after dealing with Iran.
The decision to let the Russian tanker pass was met with silence from Cuban officials, who have not publicly commented on the shipment. But the official Cuban news outlet Cubadebate called it a “direct challenge” to the U.S. oil blockade, noting that the Russian navy escorted the sanctioned vessel through the English Channel on its way to the Caribbean.
What Comes Next
The Anatoly Kolodkin’s cargo represents about two and a half weeks of Cuba’s normal oil consumption, though with rationing, it could stretch to a month, according to Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors.
For now, the tanker is expected to dock on Monday. The oil will begin flowing to power plants and refineries. The blackouts may ease. But Trump’s reversal leaves open a larger question: Was this a one-time humanitarian gesture, or the beginning of a broader policy shift?
Trump says Cuba is “finished” anyway, so the oil doesn’t matter. But by letting it through, he has effectively admitted that his own blockade wasn’t working—or that the cost of enforcing it was too high.
