One in four Latino voters who supported President Trump in 2024 say they would not vote for him again. That figure has climbed from 9% in April 2025 and 13% last November. By contrast, just 5% of Latino voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris say they would not vote for her again.
The numbers suggest a significant erosion of Trump’s standing with a voting bloc that helped propel him back to the White House. But here is the problem for Democrats: they are not winning over the defectors either.
Some 54% of Latino voters plan to vote for a Democratic House candidate in November, and 27% plan to vote for a Republican, with 19% undecided, according to a new bipartisan survey by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization. That 54% figure lines up exactly with the Democratic share of the Latino vote in the 2024 House elections — which is a notable drop from previous cycles. Democrats won 60% of the Latino House vote in 2022, 63% in 2020, and 69% in 2018.
Both parties are underperforming their 2024 levels among Latinos. That is not a sign of stability. It is a sign of widespread voter discontent.
The Trump Slide
Latinos played a key role in Trump’s return to the White House. He won 48% of Latino voters in 2024, a 12-point jump from four years earlier, according to Pew Research Center. His improved fortunes with the Latino community — once a heavily Democratic group — helped him win swing states like Arizona and fend off Democratic advances in Texas.
But that coalition is cracking. Sixty-seven percent of Latino voters now disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with majority disapproval in every region surveyed. The slide includes Trump’s home state of Florida, where 51% disapprove.
The top drivers of Latinos’ opinion on Trump are economic: cost of living and inflation (44%), immigration enforcement (33%), jobs and wages (26%), and the war with Iran (25%). These are not ideological grievances. They are pocketbook issues.
House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged earlier this year that frustration with Trump’s hardline immigration policies has been a drag on support. He said in March that Republicans were in “course correction mode” with Latino voters.
The Democratic Problem
The survey contains warnings for Democrats as well. Just 31% of Hispanic Democrats say they are motivated to vote in order to support their own candidates, compared to 52% who are mainly motivated to vote to support their community. Among Hispanic Republicans, 52% are motivated to support their favored candidates.
That enthusiasm gap could impact turnout in battleground districts. Democrats are not giving Latinos a reason to show up for them specifically. They are relying on anti-Trump sentiment — and anti-Trump sentiment alone may not be enough.
The top four issues Latino voters want their members of Congress to address are all pocketbook concerns: cost of living and inflation (60%), the economy and jobs/wages (40%), health care (37%), and housing (27%). Immigration ranks fifth, at 21%.
Only 15% of Latino voters say they live comfortably. Sixty-eight percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up from 60% in April 2025. Some 66% say Trump and congressional Republicans are not focused enough on improving the economy. And 52% expect the president’s economic policies will leave them worse off over the next 12 months.
The anger is there. The motivation is there. The direction is not.
The Texas Test
Texas could be a key proving ground for both parties’ efforts to secure Latino support. Democrats are hoping to win their first Senate race in the state in decades. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. (Paxton defeated longtime incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff on Tuesday.)
Some 51% of Texas Latinos are either planning to vote for Talarico or leaning toward him, and 24% favor Paxton, according to the UnidosUS poll, which was taken after Talarico won the Democratic nomination but before Paxton won the GOP nomination. Another 18% are undecided.
Republican strategists have taken solace in Texas Latino voters’ rightward shift in recent years, especially in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border that were once deep blue. “Over the past decade, Hispanic voters have been steadily moving toward Republicans,” said Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
But Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, a CBS News contributor, sees opportunity. “Latino voters in Texas have been moving right over the last few cycles, but because of failed promises by Donald Trump, and ICE agents in our streets picking up law-abiding immigrants, the Latino community is dramatically shifting back towards the Democrats. Something’s happening in Texas, and Latinos are sick and tired of being sick and tired.”
The Immigration Paradox
On immigration, an overwhelming majority of Latino voters — including a majority of Republicans — support offering legal status to long-residing undocumented immigrants, even when the policy is described as “amnesty.” More than seven in 10 oppose additional funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement without conditions. And 44% say they or members of their community fear immigration authorities will harass or arrest them even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents.
That fear is real. And it cuts across party lines. Yet neither party has offered a compelling response.
Most Latino voters — 64% — oppose the U.S. military action in Iran. As Trump dangles the possibility of military intervention in Cuba, 57% of Latino voters are opposed to the idea — with the exception of Cuban Americans, more than six in 10 of whom would support it.
The Bottom Line
One in four Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 say they would not vote for him again. His disapproval among Latinos stands at 67%. Yet Democrats are not running away with their support: just 54% of Latinos plan to vote for a Democratic House candidate in November, down from 60% in 2022 and 69% in 2018. Nineteen percent are undecided.
Economic issues — the cost of living, jobs, health care, housing — are the top priorities for Latino voters, not immigration. Turnout is projected to be high, but Democratic enthusiasm lags behind Republican enthusiasm. And in Texas, a key battleground, Latino voters are signaling a potential shift back toward Democrats — but the outcome is far from certain.
